Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 09/08, 22:00

Prediction: Barcelona Guayaquil vs Macara

Team pages: Barcelona Guayaquil · Macara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Barcelona Guayaquil1.56

Macara0.73

1X2

56% 27% 17%

Barcelona Guayaquil Draw Macara

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Barcelona Guayaquil 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWDDWLLD

Macara 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLWWDW

Head-to-head

Barcelona Guayaquil 3–1–2 Macara (6 last)

Macara3-1Barcelona Guayaquil
Barcelona Guayaquil0-2Macara
Macara0-1Barcelona Guayaquil
Barcelona Guayaquil2-1Macara
Macara1-1Barcelona Guayaquil
Barcelona Guayaquil5-3Macara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barcelona Guayaquil 1481 · Macara 1590

	Barcelona Guayaquil	Draw	Macara
Our model	56%	28%	16%
Market	56%	27%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macara (rating 1481 vs 1590).
H2H favours Barcelona Guayaquil: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barcelona Guayaquil	Macara
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.67
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 6.24 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:44	1.65	3.50	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:43 +1’	1.67	3.18	6.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona Guayaquil 3–1–2 Macara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Macara	3-1 HT 0-1	Barcelona Guayaquil
18/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	0-2 HT 0-0	Macara
27/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Macara	0-1 HT 0-0	Barcelona Guayaquil
16/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	2-1 HT 1-1	Macara
30/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Macara	1-1 HT 1-0	Barcelona Guayaquil
11/09/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	5-3 HT 2-2	Macara

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	23	19	1	3	56	22	58
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	23	11	6	6	38	19	39
3	Macara	23	11	5	7	30	23	38
4	SD Aucas	23	11	5	7	26	25	38
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	23	9	8	6	24	18	35
6	LDU Quito	22	9	5	8	21	17	32
7	Leones FC	23	8	8	7	24	22	32
8	Deportivo Cuenca	23	9	4	10	21	28	31
9	Club Atletico Libertad	23	8	6	9	24	26	30
10	Mushuc Runa	23	7	7	9	29	34	28
11	Guayaquil City	23	7	7	9	20	25	28
12	Emelec	23	7	7	9	19	28	28
13	Orense	23	7	5	11	27	35	26
14	Tecnico Universitario	23	8	2	13	20	29	26
15	Delfin SC	22	6	5	11	13	21	23
16	Manta FC	23	3	5	15	9	29	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barcelona Guayaquil	Macara
Leones FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
LDU Quito	0-1 L	1-0 W
Guayaquil City	1-1 D	2-1 W
Deportivo Cuenca	2-0 W	3-0 W
Tecnico Universitario	0-1 L	2-0 W
Delfin SC	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Macara (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Barcelona Guayaquil

WLLWDDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
27/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
22/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
19/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
16/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
13/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/06	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
29/05	Cruzeiro Copa Libertadores	0-1	0-4	2	6	L
25/05	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	8	4	W

Macara

DWWWWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	7	9	W
29/07	Gualaceo SC Ecuador Cup	0-0	1-1	6	7	D
26/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	4-1	2	3	W
22/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	4	6	W
18/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
14/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
11/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
05/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	0	W
05/06	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador Cup	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
02/06	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Macara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barcelona Guayaquil win (56%). Probabilities: Barcelona Guayaquil 56%, draw 27%, Macara 17%.

How many goals are expected in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Macara?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Barcelona Guayaquil 1.56 · Macara 0.73), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Macara?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.