Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 04/08, 23:00
Prediction: Carabobo vs Trujillanos
Team pages: Carabobo · Trujillanos
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.91Total
Carabobo2.13
Trujillanos0.78
1X2
Carabobo
Draw
Trujillanos
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Carabobo
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Trujillanos
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Carabobo
1–2–3
Trujillanos
(6 last)
- Trujillanos1-1Carabobo
- Carabobo2-2Trujillanos
- Trujillanos3-0Carabobo
- Carabobo2-3Trujillanos
- Trujillanos0-3Carabobo
- Carabobo0-1Trujillanos
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carabobo 1521 · Trujillanos 1416
| Carabobo | Draw | Trujillanos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| Market | 68% | 20% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carabobo (rating 1521 vs 1416).
- H2H favours Trujillanos: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Carabobo | Trujillanos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.6 | 2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.9 / 0.3 | 5.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carabobo 1–2–3 Trujillanos
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Trujillanos | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Carabobo |
| 05/12/20 Venezuela Primera Division | Carabobo | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Trujillanos |
| 05/11/20 Venezuela Primera Division | Trujillanos | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Carabobo |
| 28/09/19 Venezuela Primera Division | Carabobo | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Trujillanos |
| 07/04/19 Venezuela Primera Division | Trujillanos | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Carabobo |
| 28/10/18 Venezuela Primera Division | Carabobo | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Trujillanos |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trujillanos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Deportivo La Guaira | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Metropolitanos FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Zamora | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Portuguesa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Caracas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Deportivo Tachira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Estudiantes Merida | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | Monagas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Carabobo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | UCV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Carabobo | Trujillanos |
|---|---|---|
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Metropolitanos FC | 5-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Estudiantes Merida | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Carabobo (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carabobo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 08/06 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 28/05 | Bragantino Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 22/05 | Blooming Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 14/05 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | River Plate Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 10 | L |
Trujillanos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 24/06 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 22/04 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 12/04 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 22/03 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 18/03 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 14/03 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 09/03 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carabobo vs Trujillanos?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Carabobo win (68%). Probabilities: Carabobo 68%, draw 20%, Trujillanos 12%.
How many goals are expected in Carabobo vs Trujillanos?
The model expects 2.91 goals (Carabobo 2.13 · Trujillanos 0.78), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Carabobo vs Trujillanos?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.