Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 09/08, 22:00

Prediction: Club Atletico Libertad vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Team pages: Club Atletico Libertad · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Club Atletico Libertad0.95

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1.56

1X2

23% 27% 51%

Club Atletico Libertad Draw Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Club Atletico Libertad 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Club Atletico Libertad 2–3–1 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (6 last)

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador2-0Club Atletico Libertad
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1-1Club Atletico Libertad
Club Atletico Libertad1-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1-1Club Atletico Libertad
Club Atletico Libertad3-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1-2Club Atletico Libertad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Atletico Libertad 1521 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1555

	Club Atletico Libertad	Draw	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Our model	22%	28%	50%
Market	23%	26%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Club Atletico Libertad: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Atletico Libertad	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	1.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.60

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:42 +1’	4.00	3.60	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico Libertad 2–3–1 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	2-0 HT 0-0	Club Atletico Libertad
21/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-1 HT 1-0	Club Atletico Libertad
20/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	1-1 HT 1-0	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
16/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-1 HT 1-1	Club Atletico Libertad
29/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	3-1 HT 1-0	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
10/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-2 HT 0-0	Club Atletico Libertad

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	22	18	1	3	55	22	55
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	23	11	6	6	38	19	39
3	SD Aucas	23	11	5	7	26	25	38
4	Macara	22	10	5	7	28	22	35
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	22	9	7	6	23	17	34
6	LDU Quito	22	9	5	8	21	17	32
7	Leones FC	22	8	7	7	23	21	31
8	Deportivo Cuenca	22	9	4	9	21	27	31
9	Club Atletico Libertad	23	8	6	9	24	26	30
10	Guayaquil City	22	7	7	8	19	23	28
11	Mushuc Runa	23	7	7	9	29	34	28
12	Emelec	23	7	7	9	19	28	28
13	Orense	23	7	5	11	27	35	26
14	Tecnico Universitario	23	8	2	13	20	29	26
15	Delfin SC	22	6	5	11	13	21	23
16	Manta FC	23	3	5	15	9	29	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Atletico Libertad	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Orense	3-0 W	2-1 W
Mushuc Runa	2-0 W	2-3 L
Barcelona Guayaquil	0-1 L	2-1 W
Tecnico Universitario	1-0 W	5-0 W
LDU Quito	0-0 D	1-0 W
Leones FC	1-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Club Atletico Libertad

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	2	0	W
27/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
21/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
19/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
15/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
04/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	1-3	2	6	L
30/05	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
23/05	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	3-2	1	6	W
20/05	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador Cup	1-1	1-1	3	3	D

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-0	5-0	3	5	W
27/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
22/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
18/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
16/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	11	L
06/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-3	7	2	L
01/06	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
29/05	El Nacional Ecuador Cup	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
23/05	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Atletico Libertad vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Universidad Catolica del Ecuador win (51%). Probabilities: Club Atletico Libertad 23%, draw 27%, Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 51%.

How many goals are expected in Club Atletico Libertad vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Club Atletico Libertad 0.95 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.56), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Atletico Libertad vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.