Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 09/08, 22:00

Prediction: Delfin SC vs Orense

Team pages: Delfin SC · Orense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Delfin SC1.21

Orense1.05

1X2

39% 31% 31%

Delfin SC Draw Orense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Delfin SC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Orense 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Delfin SC 0–4–2 Orense (6 last)

Orense0-0Delfin SC
Orense3-1Delfin SC
Delfin SC0-0Orense
Orense0-0Delfin SC
Delfin SC0-1Orense
Orense0-0Delfin SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Delfin SC 1482 · Orense 1441

	Delfin SC	Draw	Orense
Our model	38%	31%	30%
Market	39%	31%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Delfin SC (rating 1482 vs 1441).
H2H favours Orense: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Delfin SC	Orense
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	0.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.6	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.00

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:41 +2’	2.38	3.00	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Delfin SC 0–4–2 Orense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	0-0 HT 0-0	Delfin SC
26/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	3-1 HT 1-1	Delfin SC
04/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Delfin SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Orense
01/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	0-0 HT 0-0	Delfin SC
12/05/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Delfin SC	0-1 HT 0-0	Orense
05/08/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	0-0 HT 0-0	Delfin SC

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	22	18	1	3	55	22	55
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	23	11	6	6	38	19	39
3	SD Aucas	23	11	5	7	26	25	38
4	Macara	22	10	5	7	28	22	35
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	22	9	7	6	23	17	34
6	LDU Quito	22	9	5	8	21	17	32
7	Leones FC	22	8	7	7	23	21	31
8	Deportivo Cuenca	22	9	4	9	21	27	31
9	Club Atletico Libertad	23	8	6	9	24	26	30
10	Guayaquil City	22	7	7	8	19	23	28
11	Mushuc Runa	23	7	7	9	29	34	28
12	Emelec	23	7	7	9	19	28	28
13	Orense	23	7	5	11	27	35	26
14	Tecnico Universitario	23	8	2	13	20	29	26
15	Delfin SC	22	6	5	11	13	21	23
16	Manta FC	23	3	5	15	9	29	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Delfin SC	Orense
Club Atletico Libertad	0-1 L	0-3 L
Manta FC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Emelec	1-1 D	0-2 L
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Delfin SC (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Delfin SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
21/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
18/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
15/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
12/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
06/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
31/05	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
25/05	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
16/05	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
13/05	Banos Ciudad de Fuego Ecuador Cup	0-0	2-0	5	3	W

Orense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	4	0	L
26/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-3	11	6	L
23/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	1	W
20/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
17/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
11/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
07/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-2	11	2	L
02/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
27/05	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador Cup	1-1	1-2	2	6	L
23/05	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Delfin SC vs Orense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Delfin SC win (39%). Probabilities: Delfin SC 39%, draw 31%, Orense 31%.

How many goals are expected in Delfin SC vs Orense?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Delfin SC 1.21 · Orense 1.05), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Delfin SC vs Orense?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.