Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 09/08, 22:00

Prediction: LDU Quito vs Independiente del Valle

Team pages: LDU Quito · Independiente del Valle

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

LDU Quito1.3

Independiente del Valle1.18

1X2

38% 29% 33%

LDU Quito Draw Independiente del Valle

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

LDU Quito 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDDLLDWW

Independiente del Valle 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

LDU Quito 2–3–1 Independiente del Valle (6 last)

Independiente del Valle0-2LDU Quito
Independiente del Valle0-0LDU Quito
LDU Quito2-1Independiente del Valle
LDU Quito1-1Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle1-1LDU Quito
Independiente del Valle1-0LDU Quito

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LDU Quito 1533 · Independiente del Valle 1609

	LDU Quito	Draw	Independiente del Valle
Our model	38%	30%	32%
Market	39%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1533 vs 1609).
H2H favours LDU Quito: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LDU Quito	Independiente del Valle
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.7	3.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1.3 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.2	3.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.25

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +13’	2.38	3.25	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LDU Quito 2–3–1 Independiente del Valle

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	0-2 HT 0-1	LDU Quito
10/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	0-0 HT 0-0	LDU Quito
29/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	2-1 HT 0-0	Independiente del Valle
22/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	1-1 HT 0-0	Independiente del Valle
23/02/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	1-1 HT 1-0	LDU Quito
14/12/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	1-0 HT 0-0	LDU Quito

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	22	18	1	3	55	22	55
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	23	11	6	6	38	19	39
3	SD Aucas	23	11	5	7	26	25	38
4	Macara	22	10	5	7	28	22	35
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	22	9	7	6	23	17	34
6	LDU Quito	22	9	5	8	21	17	32
7	Leones FC	22	8	7	7	23	21	31
8	Deportivo Cuenca	22	9	4	9	21	27	31
9	Club Atletico Libertad	23	8	6	9	24	26	30
10	Guayaquil City	22	7	7	8	19	23	28
11	Mushuc Runa	23	7	7	9	29	34	28
12	Emelec	23	7	7	9	19	28	28
13	Orense	23	7	5	11	27	35	26
14	Tecnico Universitario	23	8	2	13	20	29	26
15	Delfin SC	22	6	5	11	13	21	23
16	Manta FC	23	3	5	15	9	29	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LDU Quito	Independiente del Valle
Manta FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Orense	3-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

LDU Quito

WWLDDLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Leones FC Ecuador Cup	5-0	6-0	3	5	W
27/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
23/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
18/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
16/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
12/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
09/07	Independiente Juniors Ecuador Cup	1-1	1-1	8	4	D
05/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	7	0	L
02/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	7	4	W
27/05	Always Ready Copa Libertadores	1-2	3-2	4	3	W

Independiente del Valle

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
30/07	Manta FC Ecuador Cup	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
26/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
22/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
20/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-0	6-1	6	2	W
16/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
11/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	4-1	6	4	W
09/07	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador Cup	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
04/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	4-0	6	4	W
31/05	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	4-2	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LDU Quito vs Independiente del Valle?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LDU Quito win (38%). Probabilities: LDU Quito 38%, draw 29%, Independiente del Valle 33%.

How many goals are expected in LDU Quito vs Independiente del Valle?

The model expects 2.48 goals (LDU Quito 1.3 · Independiente del Valle 1.18), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in LDU Quito vs Independiente del Valle?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.