Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 09/08, 22:00

Prediction: SD Aucas vs Leones FC

Team pages: SD Aucas · Leones FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

SD Aucas1.76

Leones FC0.63

1X2

64% 24% 12%

SD Aucas Draw Leones FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

SD Aucas 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLWLLW

Leones FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWDWDWL

Head-to-head

SD Aucas 2–0 Leones FC (2 last)

Leones FC0-1SD Aucas
Leones FC1-4SD Aucas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SD Aucas 1540 · Leones FC 1526

	SD Aucas	Draw	Leones FC
Our model	64%	25%	12%
Market	64%	24%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SD Aucas: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SD Aucas	Leones FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.44

X3.90

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +13’	1.44	3.90	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SD Aucas 2–0–0 Leones FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Leones FC	0-1 HT 0-0	SD Aucas
12/06/22 Ecuador Cup	Leones FC	1-4 HT 0-1	SD Aucas

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	22	18	1	3	55	22	55
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	23	11	6	6	38	19	39
3	SD Aucas	23	11	5	7	26	25	38
4	Macara	22	10	5	7	28	22	35
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	22	9	7	6	23	17	34
6	LDU Quito	22	9	5	8	21	17	32
7	Leones FC	22	8	7	7	23	21	31
8	Deportivo Cuenca	22	9	4	9	21	27	31
9	Club Atletico Libertad	23	8	6	9	24	26	30
10	Guayaquil City	22	7	7	8	19	23	28
11	Mushuc Runa	23	7	7	9	29	34	28
12	Emelec	23	7	7	9	19	28	28
13	Orense	23	7	5	11	27	35	26
14	Tecnico Universitario	23	8	2	13	20	29	26
15	Delfin SC	22	6	5	11	13	21	23
16	Manta FC	23	3	5	15	9	29	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SD Aucas	Leones FC
Macara	1-4 L	1-1 D
Tecnico Universitario	1-0 W	1-2 L
Deportivo Cuenca	1-0 W	1-1 D
Guayaquil City	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SD Aucas (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

SD Aucas

WWDWWLWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
26/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-4	6	3	L
23/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
19/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
16/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
12/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
08/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
31/05	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	9	D
26/05	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-1	8	3	W
21/05	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador Cup	2-0	3-0	3	3	W

Leones FC

LWDWWDWDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	LDU Quito Ecuador Cup	0-5	0-6	6	5	L
26/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
23/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
18/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	11	W
04/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-1	7	6	W
02/06	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
30/05	Huaquillas FC Ecuador Cup	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
24/05	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SD Aucas vs Leones FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SD Aucas win (64%). Probabilities: SD Aucas 64%, draw 24%, Leones FC 12%.

How many goals are expected in SD Aucas vs Leones FC?

The model expects 2.39 goals (SD Aucas 1.76 · Leones FC 0.63), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SD Aucas vs Leones FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.