Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 09/08, 22:00

Prediction: Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa

Team pages: Tecnico Universitario · Mushuc Runa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Tecnico Universitario1.11

Mushuc Runa1.02

1X2

37% 30% 32%

Tecnico Universitario Draw Mushuc Runa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tecnico Universitario 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLLLWL

Mushuc Runa 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLWDLW

Head-to-head

Tecnico Universitario 1–3–2 Mushuc Runa (6 last)

Mushuc Runa1-0Tecnico Universitario
Mushuc Runa1-0Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario0-0Mushuc Runa
Mushuc Runa0-1Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario1-1Mushuc Runa
Tecnico Universitario2-2Mushuc Runa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tecnico Universitario 1453 · Mushuc Runa 1499

	Tecnico Universitario	Draw	Mushuc Runa
Our model	36%	32%	31%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mushuc Runa (rating 1453 vs 1499).
H2H favours Mushuc Runa: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tecnico Universitario	Mushuc Runa
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.6	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	2.8 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.6	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:38 +5’	2.45	3.20	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tecnico Universitario 1–3–2 Mushuc Runa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	1-0 HT 0-0	Tecnico Universitario
22/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	1-0 HT 1-0	Tecnico Universitario
01/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Tecnico Universitario	0-0 HT 0-0	Mushuc Runa
27/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	0-1 HT 0-1	Tecnico Universitario
06/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Tecnico Universitario	1-1 HT 1-1	Mushuc Runa
30/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Tecnico Universitario	2-2 HT 2-2	Mushuc Runa

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	22	18	1	3	55	22	55
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	23	11	6	6	38	19	39
3	SD Aucas	23	11	5	7	26	25	38
4	Macara	22	10	5	7	28	22	35
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	22	9	7	6	23	17	34
6	LDU Quito	22	9	5	8	21	17	32
7	Leones FC	22	8	7	7	23	21	31
8	Deportivo Cuenca	22	9	4	9	21	27	31
9	Club Atletico Libertad	23	8	6	9	24	26	30
10	Guayaquil City	22	7	7	8	19	23	28
11	Mushuc Runa	23	7	7	9	29	34	28
12	Emelec	23	7	7	9	19	28	28
13	Orense	23	7	5	11	27	35	26
14	Tecnico Universitario	23	8	2	13	20	29	26
15	Delfin SC	22	6	5	11	13	21	23
16	Manta FC	23	3	5	15	9	29	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tecnico Universitario	Mushuc Runa
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	0-5 L	3-2 W
Manta FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Independiente del Valle	0-3 L	1-4 L
SD Aucas	0-1 L	0-0 D
Club Atletico Libertad	0-1 L	0-2 L
Macara	0-2 L	1-2 L
Orense	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Mushuc Runa (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tecnico Universitario

WLWWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-3	0-5	7	5	L
26/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
22/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
19/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	10	9	L
15/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
11/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
07/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
02/06	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
29/05	Juventud Italiana Ecuador Cup	0-1	0-2	1	10	L
24/05	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	3	4	W

Mushuc Runa

DDLWLLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
27/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-2	13	2	L
24/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
20/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
14/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
11/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-4	6	4	L
06/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-2	1	2	W
03/06	Gualaceo SC Ecuador Cup	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
31/05	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	9	D
23/05	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	2-2	10	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tecnico Universitario win (37%). Probabilities: Tecnico Universitario 37%, draw 30%, Mushuc Runa 32%.

How many goals are expected in Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Tecnico Universitario 1.11 · Mushuc Runa 1.02), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.