Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 09/08, 22:00

Prediction: Guayaquil City vs Emelec

Team pages: Guayaquil City · Emelec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

Guayaquil City1.11

Emelec1.04

1X2

36% 31% 32%

Guayaquil City Draw Emelec

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Guayaquil City 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLWDWDDL

Emelec 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWLDLL

Head-to-head

Guayaquil City 2–3–1 Emelec (6 last)

Emelec1-3Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City0-0Emelec
Guayaquil City0-0Emelec
Emelec0-0Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City1-0Emelec
Emelec2-0Guayaquil City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guayaquil City 1491 · Emelec 1482

	Guayaquil City	Draw	Emelec
Our model	36%	32%	32%
Market	37%	31%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Guayaquil City: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guayaquil City	Emelec
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.9	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.00

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:36 +7’	2.50	3.00	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guayaquil City 2–3–1 Emelec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	1-3 HT 1-1	Guayaquil City
23/10/25 Ecuador Cup	Guayaquil City	0-0 HT 0-0	Emelec
04/11/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	0-0 HT 0-0	Emelec
30/05/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Emelec	0-0 HT 0-0	Guayaquil City
15/02/23 Club Friendly List	Guayaquil City	1-0 HT 0-0	Emelec
12/02/23 America Friendlies	Emelec	2-0 HT 2-0	Guayaquil City

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	22	18	1	3	55	22	55
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	23	11	6	6	38	19	39
3	SD Aucas	23	11	5	7	26	25	38
4	Macara	22	10	5	7	28	22	35
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	22	9	7	6	23	17	34
6	LDU Quito	22	9	5	8	21	17	32
7	Leones FC	22	8	7	7	23	21	31
8	Deportivo Cuenca	22	9	4	9	21	27	31
9	Club Atletico Libertad	23	8	6	9	24	26	30
10	Guayaquil City	22	7	7	8	19	23	28
11	Mushuc Runa	23	7	7	9	29	34	28
12	Emelec	23	7	7	9	19	28	28
13	Orense	23	7	5	11	27	35	26
14	Tecnico Universitario	23	8	2	13	20	29	26
15	Delfin SC	22	6	5	11	13	21	23
16	Manta FC	23	3	5	15	9	29	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guayaquil City	Emelec
Macara	1-2 L	2-0 W
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	0-0 D	1-0 W
Barcelona Guayaquil	1-1 D	0-0 D
Delfin SC	2-1 W	1-1 D
SD Aucas	0-1 L	0-2 L
Independiente del Valle	2-4 L	1-6 L
Mushuc Runa	2-2 D	1-1 D
Orense	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Guayaquil City

LDLLWDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	0	9	L
27/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
23/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
19/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
16/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
12/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
08/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
31/05	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	2-4	0	5	L
23/05	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	2-2	1	5	D
19/05	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	6	1	L

Emelec

DWWDDWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
28/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
24/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	11	2	D
20/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-3	1-6	0	2	L
17/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
13/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
06/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
01/06	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
24/05	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
20/05	Daquilema FC Ecuador Cup	0-0	0-0	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guayaquil City vs Emelec?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guayaquil City win (36%). Probabilities: Guayaquil City 36%, draw 31%, Emelec 32%.

How many goals are expected in Guayaquil City vs Emelec?

The model expects 2.15 goals (Guayaquil City 1.11 · Emelec 1.04), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Guayaquil City vs Emelec?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.