Football · Brazil Serie A · 15/08, 21:30
Prediction: Fluminense vs Palmeiras
Team pages: Fluminense · Palmeiras
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.42Total
Fluminense1.16
Palmeiras1.25
1X2
Fluminense
Draw
Palmeiras
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Fluminense
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Palmeiras
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fluminense
2–1–3
Palmeiras
(6 last)
- Palmeiras2-1Fluminense
- Palmeiras0-0Fluminense
- Fluminense1-2Palmeiras
- Palmeiras0-1Fluminense
- Fluminense1-0Palmeiras
- Palmeiras1-0Fluminense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fluminense 1515 · Palmeiras 1572
| Fluminense | Draw | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Market | 33% | 30% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palmeiras (rating 1515 vs 1572).
- H2H favours Palmeiras: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fluminense | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 2.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.7 | 2.6 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.3 | 4.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fluminense 2–1–3 Palmeiras
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/26 Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Fluminense |
| 23/11/25 Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Fluminense |
| 24/07/25 Brazil Serie A | Fluminense | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Palmeiras |
| 08/12/24 Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Fluminense |
| 25/07/24 Brazil Serie A | Fluminense | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Palmeiras |
| 03/12/23 Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Fluminense |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 18 | 39 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 19 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 35 |
| 5 | EC Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 31 |
| 7 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 33 | 30 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 29 | 30 |
| 9 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 30 | 30 |
| 10 | Atletico Mineiro | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 27 | 29 |
| 11 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 20 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 25 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 31 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 27 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 23 |
| 16 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 33 | 22 |
| 17 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 27 | 22 |
| 18 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 36 | 22 |
| 19 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 31 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 43 | 10 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fluminense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 06/08 | Vasco da Gama Copa do Brasil |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 01/08 | Vasco da Gama Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/07 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 18/07 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 12/07 | EC Bahia America Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 09/07 | Nova Iguacu America Friendlies |
2-1 | 6-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 28/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Copa Libertadores |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
Palmeiras
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Fortaleza Copa do Brasil |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 02/08 | Fortaleza Copa do Brasil |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 30/07 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 27/07 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 23/07 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Junior Copa Libertadores |
3-1 | 4-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 12 | W |
| 21/05 | Cerro Porteno Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Palmeiras win (37%). Probabilities: Fluminense 33%, draw 30%, Palmeiras 37%.
How many goals are expected in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
The model expects 2.42 goals (Fluminense 1.16 · Palmeiras 1.25), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.