Football · Brazil Serie A · 23/08, 21:00

Prediction: Bragantino vs Gremio

Team pages: Bragantino · Gremio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Bragantino1.52

Gremio0.76

1X2

55% 27% 18%

Bragantino Draw Gremio

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Bragantino 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWDDLD

Gremio 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLDWLLDWL

Head-to-head

Bragantino 3–3–0 Gremio (6 last)

Gremio1-1Bragantino
Bragantino1-0Gremio
Gremio1-1Bragantino
Bragantino2-2Gremio
Gremio0-2Bragantino
Bragantino2-0Gremio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bragantino 1515 · Gremio 1486

	Bragantino	Draw	Gremio
Our model	54%	28%	17%
Market	56%	25%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bragantino: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bragantino	Gremio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.3	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	5 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.75

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 23:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.70▼	Pinn 1.71
X	3.40 → 3.75▲	Pinn 3.96 ★
2	4.00 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 5.5% Pinnacle margin 4%

Time*	1	X	2
01:37 +2’	1.85	3.40	4.00
07:42 +4’	1.70▼	3.60▲	4.75▲
05:38 +13’	1.75▲	3.70▲	4.75
23:14 +13’	1.70▼	3.75▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:37 +2’	1.75	3.85	4.56
23:20	1.76▲	3.81▼	4.58▲
05:48	1.72▼	3.85▲	4.71▲
21:45 +3’	1.74▲	3.80▼	4.72▲
21:10 +2’	1.71▼	3.96▲	4.94▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bragantino 3–3–0 Gremio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	1-1 HT 1-0	Bragantino
04/10/25 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	1-0 HT 0-0	Gremio
10/05/25 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	1-1 HT 0-0	Bragantino
15/09/24 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	2-2 HT 1-1	Gremio
01/06/24 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	0-2 HT 0-1	Bragantino
15/09/23 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	2-0 HT 2-0	Gremio

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	40	19	48
2	Flamengo	22	13	6	3	44	19	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	31	20	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	34	28	38
5	Cruzeiro	23	10	6	7	32	32	36
6	EC Bahia	23	8	10	5	32	28	34
7	Bragantino	22	9	5	8	27	23	32
8	Atletico Mineiro	22	9	5	8	30	27	32
9	Corinthians	23	8	8	7	25	22	32
10	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	28	30	31
11	Botafogo	22	8	6	8	35	34	30
12	Vitoria	23	8	5	10	23	33	29
13	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	27	26	27
14	Santos	22	6	7	9	32	35	25
15	Gremio	22	6	7	9	24	30	25
16	Internacional	23	5	9	9	24	28	24
17	Mirassol	22	6	5	11	25	35	23
18	Remo	23	5	8	10	27	37	23
19	Vasco da Gama	22	5	7	10	23	34	22
20	Chapecoense	22	1	8	13	23	46	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bragantino	Gremio
Athletico Paranaense	1-1 D	0-0 D
Corinthians	0-2 L	1-3 L
Coritiba	0-0 D	1-0 W
Fluminense	1-1 D	1-1 D
Santos	0-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gremio (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bragantino

LWLWWWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
09/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
26/07	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
18/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
31/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-1	6	6	W
25/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
17/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
10/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
03/05	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
26/04	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	9	3	L

Gremio

WDLDWLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	6	6	L
08/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	7	7	W
26/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
18/07	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
30/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	4	6	L
24/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	8	4	W
17/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
11/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
03/05	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
26/04	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bragantino vs Gremio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bragantino win (55%). Probabilities: Bragantino 55%, draw 27%, Gremio 18%.

How many goals are expected in Bragantino vs Gremio?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Bragantino 1.52 · Gremio 0.76), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bragantino vs Gremio?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.