Prediction: Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama
Team pages: Palmeiras · Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama2-1Palmeiras
- Palmeiras3-0Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama0-1Palmeiras
- Vasco da Gama0-1Palmeiras
- Palmeiras2-0Vasco da Gama
- Palmeiras1-0Vasco da Gama
| Palmeiras | Draw | Vasco da Gama | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 24% | 15% |
| Market | 60% | 24% | 15% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palmeiras (rating 1555 vs 1508).
- H2H favours Palmeiras: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Palmeiras | Vasco da Gama | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.4 | 1.8 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.5 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Palmeiras 5–0–1 Vasco da Gama
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/26 Brazil Serie A | Vasco da Gama | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Palmeiras |
| 02/10/25 Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Vasco da Gama |
| 04/05/25 Brazil Serie A | Vasco da Gama | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Palmeiras |
| 22/09/24 Brazil Serie A | Vasco da Gama | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Palmeiras |
| 14/06/24 Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Vasco da Gama |
| 27/08/23 Brazil Serie A | Palmeiras | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Vasco da Gama |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 19 | 45 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 38 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 36 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 34 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 23 | 32 |
| 8 | Atletico Mineiro | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 32 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 25 | 22 | 32 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 31 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 34 | 30 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 33 | 29 |
| 13 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 26 | 27 |
| 14 | Santos | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 35 | 25 |
| 15 | Gremio | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 30 | 25 |
| 16 | Internacional | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 24 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 25 | 35 | 23 |
| 18 | Remo | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 37 | 23 |
| 19 | Vasco da Gama | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | 11 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Palmeiras | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 0-0 D | 1-4 L |
| Vitoria | 4-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Atletico Mineiro | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Flamengo | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Santos | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Palmeiras (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Palmeiras
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 09/08 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/07 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 27/07 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 23/07 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 12 | W |
| 17/05 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 17 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
Vasco da Gama
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 17/07 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 25/05 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 11/05 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Palmeiras win (60%). Probabilities: Palmeiras 60%, draw 24%, Vasco da Gama 15%.
How many goals are expected in Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama?
The model expects 2.65 goals (Palmeiras 1.83 · Vasco da Gama 0.82), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.