Football · Brazil Serie A · 23/08, 23:30

Prediction: Chapecoense vs Sao Paulo

Team pages: Chapecoense · Sao Paulo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Chapecoense1.06

Sao Paulo1.53

1X2

25% 29% 47%

Chapecoense Draw Sao Paulo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Chapecoense 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLDLD

Sao Paulo 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLDLLDLD

Head-to-head

Chapecoense 1–2–3 Sao Paulo (6 last)

Sao Paulo2-0Chapecoense
Chapecoense1-1Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo1-1Chapecoense
Chapecoense0-3Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo4-0Chapecoense
Chapecoense1-0Sao Paulo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chapecoense 1424 · Sao Paulo 1494

	Chapecoense	Draw	Sao Paulo
Our model	25%	28%	47%
Market	24%	29%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Paulo (rating 1424 vs 1494).
H2H favours Sao Paulo: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chapecoense	Sao Paulo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.2	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.4	3.2 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.25

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.05

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 21:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.43 ★
2	2.10 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.07

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 5.2% Pinnacle margin 3.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:36 +7’	3.40	3.25	2.10
05:58 +1’	3.75▲	3.30▲	2.10
14:07 +17’	3.75	3.25▼	2.10
21:29 +1’	3.90▲	3.25	2.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:41 +1’	3.70	3.34	2.09
04:21	3.74▲	3.34	2.07▼
21:22	3.74	3.35▲	2.07
01:42	3.76▲	3.36▲	2.06▼
21:55 +2’	3.76	3.33▼	2.07▲
12:59 +2’	3.77▲	3.35▲	2.06▼
21:10 +19’	3.76▼	3.40▲	2.04▼
00:19 +4’	3.78▲	3.43▲	2.07▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chapecoense 1–2–3 Sao Paulo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	2-0 HT 0-0	Chapecoense
03/10/21 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	1-1 HT 0-1	Sao Paulo
17/06/21 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	1-1 HT 1-0	Chapecoense
03/11/19 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	0-3 HT 0-2	Sao Paulo
23/07/19 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	4-0 HT 0-0	Chapecoense
02/12/18 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	1-0 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	40	19	48
2	Flamengo	22	13	6	3	44	19	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	31	20	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	34	28	38
5	Cruzeiro	23	10	6	7	32	32	36
6	EC Bahia	23	8	10	5	32	28	34
7	Bragantino	22	9	5	8	27	23	32
8	Atletico Mineiro	22	9	5	8	30	27	32
9	Corinthians	23	8	8	7	25	22	32
10	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	28	30	31
11	Botafogo	22	8	6	8	35	34	30
12	Vitoria	23	8	5	10	23	33	29
13	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	27	26	27
14	Santos	22	6	7	9	32	35	25
15	Gremio	22	6	7	9	24	30	25
16	Internacional	23	5	9	9	24	28	24
17	Mirassol	22	6	5	11	25	35	23
18	Remo	23	5	8	10	27	37	23
19	Vasco da Gama	22	5	7	10	23	34	22
20	Chapecoense	22	1	8	13	23	46	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chapecoense	Sao Paulo
EC Bahia	3-3 D	2-2 D
Coritiba	1-2 L	1-1 D
Flamengo	0-4 L	1-1 D
Remo	2-3 L	0-1 L
Mirassol	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sao Paulo (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chapecoense

LDLLLLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-2	3-3	3	3	D
09/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
25/07	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-2	1	7	D
23/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-4	5	1	L
18/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	6	1	L
31/05	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
24/05	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
17/05	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	3	3	L
10/05	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
03/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	5	4	L

Sao Paulo

WDLLDLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
08/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
26/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
23/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	1	L
01/06	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
23/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
17/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
10/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	7	8	L
03/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	14	5	D
26/04	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	12	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chapecoense vs Sao Paulo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sao Paulo win (47%). Probabilities: Chapecoense 25%, draw 29%, Sao Paulo 47%.

How many goals are expected in Chapecoense vs Sao Paulo?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Chapecoense 1.06 · Sao Paulo 1.53), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs Sao Paulo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.