Football · Brazil Serie A · 25/08, 01:00

Prediction: Botafogo vs Athletico Paranaense

Team pages: Botafogo · Athletico Paranaense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Botafogo1.33

Athletico Paranaense1.05

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Botafogo Draw Athletico Paranaense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDLWDWDL

Athletico Paranaense 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DLDWWWWDWD

Head-to-head

Botafogo 2–2–2 Athletico Paranaense (6 last)

Athletico Paranaense4-1Botafogo
Athletico Paranaense0-1Botafogo
Botafogo1-1Athletico Paranaense
Botafogo1-1Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense1-0Botafogo
Botafogo1-0Athletico Paranaense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo 1505 · Athletico Paranaense 1542

	Botafogo	Draw	Athletico Paranaense
Our model	42%	30%	28%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo	Athletico Paranaense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.1 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.9	3.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.05

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.31
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.50 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.52 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 5.1% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:42 +2’	2.10	3.30	3.50
14:31 +2’	2.20▲	3.25▼	3.25▼
16:52 +2’	2.25▲	3.30▲	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:44	2.32	2.99	3.53
11:56	2.32	3.00▲	3.53
22:00 +15’	2.31▼	3.03▲	3.52▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo 2–2–2 Athletico Paranaense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	4-1 HT 2-1	Botafogo
05/10/24 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	0-1 HT 0-1	Botafogo
20/06/24 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	1-1 HT 0-0	Athletico Paranaense
22/10/23 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	1-1 HT 1-1	Athletico Paranaense
03/06/23 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	1-0 HT 1-0	Botafogo
01/06/23 Copa do Brasil	Botafogo	1-0 HT 1-0	Athletico Paranaense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	40	19	48
2	Flamengo	22	13	6	3	44	19	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	31	20	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	34	28	38
5	Cruzeiro	23	10	6	7	32	32	36
6	EC Bahia	23	8	10	5	32	28	34
7	Bragantino	22	9	5	8	27	23	32
8	Atletico Mineiro	22	9	5	8	30	27	32
9	Corinthians	23	8	8	7	25	22	32
10	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	28	30	31
11	Botafogo	22	8	6	8	35	34	30
12	Vitoria	23	8	5	10	23	33	29
13	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	27	26	27
14	Santos	22	6	7	9	32	35	25
15	Gremio	22	6	7	9	24	30	25
16	Internacional	23	5	9	9	24	28	24
17	Mirassol	22	6	5	11	25	35	23
18	Remo	23	5	8	10	27	37	23
19	Vasco da Gama	22	5	7	10	23	34	22
20	Chapecoense	22	1	8	13	23	46	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo	Athletico Paranaense
Santos	2-1 W	2-0 W
Sao Paulo	1-1 D	2-1 W
Corinthians	3-1 W	0-0 D
Remo	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Athletico Paranaense (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botafogo

LDWDLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
09/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
26/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
24/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
17/07	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
30/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	4	9	L
23/05	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
17/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-1	3	7	W
10/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
02/05	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	9	4	L

Athletico Paranaense

DLDWWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
09/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
31/07	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
25/07	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
23/07	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
30/05	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
24/05	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	10	6	W
18/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	9	5	D
11/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
03/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo vs Athletico Paranaense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Botafogo win (42%). Probabilities: Botafogo 42%, draw 29%, Athletico Paranaense 29%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo vs Athletico Paranaense?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Botafogo 1.33 · Athletico Paranaense 1.05), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Athletico Paranaense?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.