Football · Brazil Serie A · 24/08, 00:30

Prediction: Coritiba vs Corinthians

Team pages: Coritiba · Corinthians

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Coritiba1.09

Corinthians1.24

1X2

31% 31% 38%

Coritiba Draw Corinthians

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Coritiba 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWLLDLWD

Corinthians 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWDDWL

Head-to-head

Coritiba 1–1–4 Corinthians (6 last)

Corinthians0-2Coritiba
Coritiba0-2Corinthians
Corinthians3-1Coritiba
Coritiba2-2Corinthians
Corinthians3-1Coritiba
Coritiba0-1Corinthians

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Coritiba 1477 · Corinthians 1525

	Coritiba	Draw	Corinthians
Our model	31%	31%	38%
Market	31%	32%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Corinthians (rating 1477 vs 1525).
H2H favours Corinthians: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Coritiba	Corinthians
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.8	2.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	5.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.10

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 03:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.29 ★
X	3.10 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.02
2	2.55 → 2.50▼	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 5.6% Pinnacle margin 3.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:36 +7’	2.80	3.10	2.55
07:45 +2’	3.00▲	3.10	2.40▼
05:58 +3’	3.10▲	3.10	2.45▲
03:35 +13’	3.10	3.00▼	2.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:41 +2’	3.21	2.95	2.46
03:08 +1’	3.24▲	2.98▲	2.48▲
15:00 +1’	3.19▼	2.99▲	2.50▲
01:45	3.19	2.98▼	2.51▲
21:55 +4’	3.19	2.99▲	2.50▼
03:48	3.22▲	2.96▼	2.51▲
21:10 +22’	3.31▲	2.97▲	2.45▼
00:19 +4’	3.24▼	2.96▼	2.50▲
01:28 +1’	3.22▼	2.99▲	2.55▲
04:27	3.29▲	3.02▲	2.49▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Coritiba 1–1–4 Corinthians

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
12/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Corinthians	0-2 HT 0-1	Coritiba
07/12/23 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	0-2 HT 0-2	Corinthians
13/08/23 Brazil Serie A	Corinthians	3-1 HT 0-1	Coritiba
09/11/22 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	2-2 HT 2-1	Corinthians
21/07/22 Brazil Serie A	Corinthians	3-1 HT 1-0	Coritiba
26/11/20 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	0-1 HT 0-1	Corinthians

Standings · Brazil Serie A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	40	19	48
2	Flamengo	22	13	6	3	44	19	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	31	20	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	34	28	38
5	Cruzeiro	23	10	6	7	32	32	36
6	EC Bahia	23	8	10	5	32	28	34
7	Bragantino	22	9	5	8	27	23	32
8	Atletico Mineiro	22	9	5	8	30	27	32
9	Corinthians	23	8	8	7	25	22	32
10	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	28	30	31
11	Botafogo	22	8	6	8	35	34	30
12	Vitoria	23	8	5	10	23	33	29
13	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	27	26	27
14	Santos	22	6	7	9	32	35	25
15	Gremio	22	6	7	9	24	30	25
16	Internacional	23	5	9	9	24	28	24
17	Mirassol	22	6	5	11	25	35	23
18	Remo	23	5	8	10	27	37	23
19	Vasco da Gama	22	5	7	10	23	34	22
20	Chapecoense	22	1	8	13	23	46	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Coritiba	Corinthians
Sao Paulo	1-1 D	3-2 W
Cruzeiro	0-1 L	1-2 L
Bragantino	0-0 D	2-0 W
EC Bahia	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Corinthians (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Coritiba

LDWWLLDLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
09/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
31/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
26/07	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
23/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
30/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
26/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-1	3-2	3	3	W
17/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	3-0	3-0	3	6	W
09/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
02/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-2	1-4	4	5	L

Corinthians

LWLWWWDDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
09/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
31/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
26/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
24/07	Remo Brazil Serie A	3-0	3-0	3	2	W
30/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-1	8	6	W
24/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
17/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-2	1-3	2	7	L
10/05	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	7	8	W
04/05	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Coritiba vs Corinthians?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Corinthians win (38%). Probabilities: Coritiba 31%, draw 31%, Corinthians 38%.

How many goals are expected in Coritiba vs Corinthians?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Coritiba 1.09 · Corinthians 1.24), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Corinthians?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.