Football · Brazil Serie A · 23/08, 23:30
Prediction: Santos vs Mirassol
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.7Total
Santos1.64
Mirassol1.06
1X2
Santos
Draw
Mirassol
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Santos
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Mirassol
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Santos
2–3–1
Mirassol
(6 last)
- Mirassol2-2Santos
- Santos1-1Mirassol
- Mirassol3-0Santos
- Santos2-1Mirassol
- Santos3-2Mirassol
- Mirassol0-0Santos
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Santos 1553 · Mirassol 1463
| Santos | Draw | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santos (rating 1553 vs 1463).
- H2H favours Santos: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Santos | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.3 | 2.3 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.3 | 4.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Santos 2–3–1 Mirassol
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/26 Brazil Serie A | Mirassol | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Santos |
| 20/11/25 Brazil Serie A | Santos | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Mirassol |
| 19/07/25 Brazil Serie A | Mirassol | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Santos |
| 17/01/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista | Santos | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Mirassol |
| 12/10/24 Brazil Serie B | Santos | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Mirassol |
| 26/06/24 Brazil Serie B | Mirassol | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Santos |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 19 | 45 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 38 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 36 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 34 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 23 | 32 |
| 8 | Atletico Mineiro | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 32 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 25 | 22 | 32 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 31 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 34 | 30 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 33 | 29 |
| 13 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 26 | 27 |
| 14 | Santos | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 35 | 25 |
| 15 | Gremio | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 30 | 25 |
| 16 | Internacional | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 24 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 25 | 35 | 23 |
| 18 | Remo | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 37 | 23 |
| 19 | Vasco da Gama | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 46 | 11 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Santos | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| Vasco da Gama | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Athletico Paranaense | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Chapecoense | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Gremio | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Mirassol (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Santos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 7 | D |
| 17/07 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 25/04 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
Mirassol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/07 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/07 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 04/05 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Santos vs Mirassol?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Santos win (50%). Probabilities: Santos 50%, draw 27%, Mirassol 23%.
How many goals are expected in Santos vs Mirassol?
The model expects 2.7 goals (Santos 1.64 · Mirassol 1.06), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Mirassol?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.