Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 19/08, 12:30
Prediction: University Azzurri FC vs Port Darwin FC
Team pages: University Azzurri FC · Port Darwin FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.54Total
University Azzurri FC2.87
Port Darwin FC1.67
1X2
University Azzurri FC
Draw
Port Darwin FC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
University Azzurri FC
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Port Darwin FC
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
University Azzurri FC
3–2–1
Port Darwin FC
(6 last)
- University Azzurri FC6-1Port Darwin FC
- Port Darwin FC1-4University Azzurri FC
- University Azzurri FC2-0Port Darwin FC
- Port Darwin FC0-0University Azzurri FC
- University Azzurri FC2-2Port Darwin FC
- University Azzurri FC1-3Port Darwin FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · University Azzurri FC 1634 · Port Darwin FC 1515
| University Azzurri FC | Draw | Port Darwin FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 18% | 20% |
| Market | 61% | 20% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.54 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University Azzurri FC (rating 1634 vs 1515).
- H2H favours University Azzurri FC: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| University Azzurri FC | Port Darwin FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.8 / 1.2 | 3.5 / 3.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2 / 0.4 | 1.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/10/10% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.4 | 2.8 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · University Azzurri FC 3–2–1 Port Darwin FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | University Azzurri FC | 6-1 HT 2-1 | Port Darwin FC |
| 12/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Port Darwin FC | 1-4 HT 1-1 | University Azzurri FC |
| 08/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | University Azzurri FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Port Darwin FC |
| 31/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Port Darwin FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | University Azzurri FC |
| 01/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying | University Azzurri FC | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Port Darwin FC |
| 29/03/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | University Azzurri FC | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Port Darwin FC |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 19 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 81 | 19 | 52 |
| 2 | Mindil Aces | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 69 | 19 | 40 |
| 3 | Darwin Olympic | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 59 | 36 | 34 |
| 4 | Port Darwin FC | 17 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 61 | 41 | 34 |
| 5 | Darwin Hearts | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 51 | 42 | 33 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 47 | 18 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 19 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 85 | 16 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 26 | 56 | 15 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 20 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 21 | 94 | 6 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | University Azzurri FC | Port Darwin FC |
|---|---|---|
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 10-2 W | 10-0 W |
| Darwin Olympic | 4-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Hellenic AC | 3-0 W | 6-2 W |
| Garuda FC | 10-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Mindil Aces | 3-2 W | 0-8 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: University Azzurri FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
University Azzurri FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
5-0 | 10-2 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 5-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 22/07 | Macarthur FC Australia Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 03/07 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 26/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
4-0 | 10-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
Port Darwin FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 25/07 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 02/07 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 25/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
6-0 | 10-0 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-4 | 0-8 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 5-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 6-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 20/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-2 | 1-6 | 8 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in University Azzurri FC vs Port Darwin FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a University Azzurri FC win (61%). Probabilities: University Azzurri FC 61%, draw 19%, Port Darwin FC 19%.
How many goals are expected in University Azzurri FC vs Port Darwin FC?
The model expects 4.54 goals (University Azzurri FC 2.87 · Port Darwin FC 1.67), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in University Azzurri FC vs Port Darwin FC?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.