Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 26/08, 13:00
Prediction: Palmerston Rovers FC vs Port Darwin FC
Team pages: Palmerston Rovers FC · Port Darwin FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.84Total
Palmerston Rovers FC1.48
Port Darwin FC3.36
1X2
Palmerston Rovers FC
Draw
Port Darwin FC
Markets
Over 4.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
1-3 7%
Recent form · 10 last
Palmerston Rovers FC
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Port Darwin FC
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Palmerston Rovers FC
0–1
Port Darwin FC
(1 last)
- Palmerston Rovers FC3-5Port Darwin FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Palmerston Rovers FC 1412 · Port Darwin FC 1498
| Palmerston Rovers FC | Draw | Port Darwin FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 13% | 14% | 73% |
| Market | 13% | 14% | 73% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.84 goals · Bet365 line 5.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Port Darwin FC (rating 1412 vs 1498).
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Palmerston Rovers FC | Port Darwin FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 4.8 | 2.5 / 3.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 2.2 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/10/60% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.9 | 2 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0.2 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Palmerston Rovers FC 0–0–1 Port Darwin FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Palmerston Rovers FC | 3-5 HT 2-2 | Port Darwin FC |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 21 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 91 | 21 | 58 |
| 2 | Mindil Aces | 20 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 74 | 19 | 43 |
| 3 | Darwin Olympic | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 61 | 36 | 37 |
| 4 | Port Darwin FC | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 62 | 50 | 34 |
| 5 | Darwin Hearts | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 52 | 45 | 33 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 47 | 18 |
| 7 | Hellenic AC | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 56 | 18 |
| 8 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 20 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 37 | 90 | 16 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 21 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 21 | 96 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Palmerston Rovers FC | Port Darwin FC |
|---|---|---|
| Mindil Aces | 0-5 L | 0-8 L |
| University Azzurri FC | 2-10 L | 1-7 L |
| Darwin Hearts | 3-8 L | 4-4 D |
| Garuda FC | 7-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Hellenic AC | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Darwin Olympic | 1-7 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 5 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Palmerston Rovers FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 16/08 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-5 | 2-10 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-5 | 3-8 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-0 | 7-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 23/07 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 17/07 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-6 | 1-7 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 02/07 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 27/06 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 24/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 1-6 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 1-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
Port Darwin FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/08 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 1-7 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 25/07 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 02/07 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 25/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-4 | 0-8 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 5-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 6-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Palmerston Rovers FC vs Port Darwin FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Port Darwin FC win (73%). Probabilities: Palmerston Rovers FC 13%, draw 14%, Port Darwin FC 73%.
How many goals are expected in Palmerston Rovers FC vs Port Darwin FC?
The model expects 4.84 goals (Palmerston Rovers FC 1.48 · Port Darwin FC 3.36), with a 56% chance of under 5.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Palmerston Rovers FC vs Port Darwin FC?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.