Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 27/08, 11:00

Prediction: Mindil Aces vs University Azzurri FC

Team pages: Mindil Aces · University Azzurri FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.26Total

Mindil Aces1.93

University Azzurri FC2.33

1X2

32% 21% 47%

Mindil Aces Draw University Azzurri FC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Mindil Aces 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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University Azzurri FC 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Mindil Aces 0–1–5 University Azzurri FC (6 last)

University Azzurri FC3-2Mindil Aces
Mindil Aces0-2University Azzurri FC
University Azzurri FC2-1Mindil Aces
Mindil Aces1-1University Azzurri FC
University Azzurri FC2-0Mindil Aces
Mindil Aces0-1University Azzurri FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mindil Aces 1586 · University Azzurri FC 1635

	Mindil Aces	Draw	University Azzurri FC
Our model	32%	21%	47%
Market	32%	21%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 4.26 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University Azzurri FC (rating 1586 vs 1635).
H2H favours University Azzurri FC: 5-1-0.
High corners: 13.6 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mindil Aces	University Azzurri FC
Goals for / against (FT)	4.6 / 1	5.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.6	2.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	90/10/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7.5	3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X4.33

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.93

Under 41.88

Diff.: 1.9 · xG: 5.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:01 +8’	2.80	4.33	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mindil Aces 0–1–5 University Azzurri FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/06/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	University Azzurri FC	3-2 HT 1-1	Mindil Aces
23/04/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	0-2 HT 0-1	University Azzurri FC
13/09/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	University Azzurri FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Mindil Aces
16/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	1-1 HT 0-1	University Azzurri FC
07/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	University Azzurri FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Mindil Aces
04/04/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Mindil Aces	0-1 HT 0-1	University Azzurri FC

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	21	19	1	1	91	21	58
2	Mindil Aces	20	14	1	5	74	19	43
3	Darwin Olympic	21	11	4	6	61	36	37
4	Port Darwin FC	19	11	1	7	62	50	34
5	Darwin Hearts	20	10	3	7	52	45	33
6	Casuarina FC	19	5	3	11	34	47	18
7	Hellenic AC	21	5	3	13	28	56	18
8	Palmerston Rovers FC	20	5	1	14	37	90	16
9	Garuda FC	21	1	3	17	21	96	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mindil Aces	University Azzurri FC
Palmerston Rovers FC	5-0 W	10-2 W
Darwin Olympic	0-2 L	4-2 W
Darwin Hearts	4-2 W	3-1 W
Garuda FC	11-0 W	10-0 W
Hellenic AC	4-1 W	3-0 W
Casuarina FC	3-0 W	5-1 W
Port Darwin FC	8-0 W	7-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	7 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: University Azzurri FC (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mindil Aces

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	5-0	12	0	W
18/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
14/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	4-2	9	1	W
01/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	4-0	11-0	10	0	W
26/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	4-1	5	0	W
19/07	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
03/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-1	7	0	W
24/06	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	6-1	3	1	W
19/06	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	2-3	7	2	L
13/06	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	4-0	8-0	5	3	W

University Azzurri FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	3-1	6	2	W
19/08	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	7-1	7	2	W
16/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	5-0	10-2	8	2	W
08/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	4-2	3	3	W
01/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
25/07	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	5-1	10	2	W
03/07	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-0	7	0	W
26/06	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	4-0	10-0	4	3	W
19/06	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
14/06	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	5-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mindil Aces vs University Azzurri FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an University Azzurri FC win (47%). Probabilities: Mindil Aces 32%, draw 21%, University Azzurri FC 47%.

How many goals are expected in Mindil Aces vs University Azzurri FC?

The model expects 4.26 goals (Mindil Aces 1.93 · University Azzurri FC 2.33), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Mindil Aces vs University Azzurri FC?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.