Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 26/08, 11:00

Prediction: Darwin Hearts vs Casuarina FC

Team pages: Darwin Hearts · Casuarina FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.45Total

Darwin Hearts2.73

Casuarina FC1.73

1X2

58% 19% 23%

Darwin Hearts Draw Casuarina FC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Darwin Hearts 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Casuarina FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Darwin Hearts 6–0 Casuarina FC (6 last)

Casuarina FC0-2Darwin Hearts
Darwin Hearts5-1Casuarina FC
Casuarina FC0-5Darwin Hearts
Darwin Hearts6-1Casuarina FC
Casuarina FC0-8Darwin Hearts
Casuarina FC0-2Darwin Hearts

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Darwin Hearts 1545 · Casuarina FC 1422

	Darwin Hearts	Draw	Casuarina FC
Our model	58%	19%	23%
Market	58%	20%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 4.45 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Darwin Hearts (rating 1545 vs 1422).
H2H favours Darwin Hearts: 6-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Darwin Hearts	Casuarina FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 2.4	1.8 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 1	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4	1.3 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.2	1.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.90

Under 4.251.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.65

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 03:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.55▼	Bet365 1.55
X	4.75 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50
2	3.80 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:53 +10’	1.57	4.75	3.80
23:58 +5’	1.45▼	5.00▲	4.50▲
01:54 +10’	1.60▲	4.50▼	3.80▼
03:03 +1’	1.55▼	4.50	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Darwin Hearts 6–0–0 Casuarina FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Casuarina FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Darwin Hearts
22/04/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Hearts	5-1 HT 1-1	Casuarina FC
16/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Casuarina FC	0-5 HT 0-3	Darwin Hearts
06/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Hearts	6-1 HT 4-0	Casuarina FC
08/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	Casuarina FC	0-8 HT 0-3	Darwin Hearts
05/04/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Casuarina FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Darwin Hearts

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	21	19	1	1	91	21	58
2	Mindil Aces	20	14	1	5	74	19	43
3	Darwin Olympic	21	11	4	6	61	36	37
4	Port Darwin FC	19	11	1	7	62	50	34
5	Darwin Hearts	20	10	3	7	52	45	33
6	Casuarina FC	19	5	3	11	34	47	18
7	Hellenic AC	21	5	3	13	28	56	18
8	Palmerston Rovers FC	20	5	1	14	37	90	16
9	Garuda FC	21	1	3	17	21	96	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Darwin Hearts	Casuarina FC
University Azzurri FC	1-3 L	1-5 L
Mindil Aces	2-4 L	0-3 L
Palmerston Rovers FC	8-3 W	2-3 L
Garuda FC	3-2 W	2-3 L
Hellenic AC	2-1 W	0-2 L
Darwin Olympic	3-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Darwin Hearts (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Darwin Hearts

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	1-3	0	2	L
14/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	2-4	2	1	L
09/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	5-1	8-3	8	3	W
31/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	4-4	4	6	D
23/07	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-2	1	0	W
18/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
28/06	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	3-2	5	2	W
25/06	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	1	W
21/06	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	8	0	W
06/06	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-3	0-4	6	2	L

Casuarina FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-3	2	2	L
07/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
02/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	2-2	6	2	D
25/07	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-5	2	2	L
19/07	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
03/07	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	0-2	2	0	L
27/06	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
21/06	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
05/06	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	6-0	1	3	W
29/05	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	5-1	2	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Darwin Hearts vs Casuarina FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Darwin Hearts win (58%). Probabilities: Darwin Hearts 58%, draw 19%, Casuarina FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Darwin Hearts vs Casuarina FC?

The model expects 4.45 goals (Darwin Hearts 2.73 · Casuarina FC 1.73), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Darwin Hearts vs Casuarina FC?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.