Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 29/08, 12:30

Prediction: Casuarina FC vs Palmerston Rovers FC

Team pages: Casuarina FC · Palmerston Rovers FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.5Total

Casuarina FC2.72

Palmerston Rovers FC1.78

1X2

57% 19% 24%

Casuarina FC Draw Palmerston Rovers FC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Casuarina FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLDLLW

Palmerston Rovers FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWLLLW

Head-to-head

Casuarina FC 1–1 Palmerston Rovers FC (2 last)

Palmerston Rovers FC3-2Casuarina FC
Casuarina FC3-2Palmerston Rovers FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Casuarina FC 1450 · Palmerston Rovers FC 1438

	Casuarina FC	Draw	Palmerston Rovers FC
Our model	57%	19%	24%
Market	57%	20%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Casuarina FC	Palmerston Rovers FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.4	2.2 / 4.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	1.1 / 1.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.9	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	1.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.50

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.82

Under 4.251.98

Diff.: 1 · xG: 5.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.57▲	Bet365 1.57
X	4.75 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50
2	4.20 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:36 +8’	1.50	4.75	4.20
07:05 +5’	1.50	4.75	4.10▼
05:21 +13’	1.57▲	4.50▼	3.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 4.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 4 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Casuarina FC 1–0–1 Palmerston Rovers FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Palmerston Rovers FC	3-2 HT 1-1	Casuarina FC
25/04/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Casuarina FC	3-2 HT 1-2	Palmerston Rovers FC

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	22	19	2	1	92	22	59
2	Mindil Aces	21	14	2	5	75	20	44
3	Darwin Olympic	21	11	4	6	61	36	37
4	Port Darwin FC	20	11	1	8	63	52	34
5	Darwin Hearts	21	10	3	8	54	48	33
6	Casuarina FC	20	6	3	11	37	49	21
7	Hellenic AC	22	5	4	13	30	58	19
8	Palmerston Rovers FC	21	6	1	14	39	91	19
9	Garuda FC	22	1	4	17	23	98	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Casuarina FC	Palmerston Rovers FC
Darwin Hearts	3-2 W	3-8 L
Garuda FC	2-3 L	7-0 W
Hellenic AC	0-2 L	1-2 L
Darwin Olympic	2-2 D	1-7 L
University Azzurri FC	1-5 L	2-10 L
Mindil Aces	0-3 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Casuarina FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Casuarina FC

WLLLLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	3-2	2	3	W
15/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-3	2	2	L
07/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
02/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	2-2	6	2	D
25/07	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-5	2	2	L
19/07	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
03/07	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	0-2	2	0	L
27/06	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
21/06	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
05/06	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	6-0	1	3	W

Palmerston Rovers FC

LWDLLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-5	4	0	L
16/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-5	2-10	4	2	L
09/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-5	3-8	2	3	L
26/07	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	7-0	2	0	W
23/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
17/07	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	1-6	1-7	1	5	L
02/07	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-2	9	2	D
27/06	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
24/06	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	1-6	8	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Casuarina FC vs Palmerston Rovers FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Casuarina FC win (57%). Probabilities: Casuarina FC 57%, draw 19%, Palmerston Rovers FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Casuarina FC vs Palmerston Rovers FC?

The model expects 4.5 goals (Casuarina FC 2.72 · Palmerston Rovers FC 1.78), with a 52% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Casuarina FC vs Palmerston Rovers FC?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.