Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 27/08, 13:00
Prediction: Hellenic AC vs Garuda FC
Team pages: Hellenic AC · Garuda FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.46Total
Hellenic AC3.14
Garuda FC1.32
1X2
Hellenic AC
Draw
Garuda FC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Hellenic AC
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Garuda FC
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hellenic AC
5–1–0
Garuda FC
(6 last)
- Garuda FC0-2Hellenic AC
- Hellenic AC4-4Garuda FC
- Hellenic AC3-0Garuda FC
- Hellenic AC2-1Garuda FC
- Garuda FC3-9Hellenic AC
- Hellenic AC3-0Garuda FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hellenic AC 1464 · Garuda FC 1370
| Hellenic AC | Draw | Garuda FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 15% | 12% |
| Market | 73% | 14% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.46 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hellenic AC (rating 1464 vs 1370).
- H2H favours Hellenic AC: 5-1-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hellenic AC | Garuda FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.1 | 0.9 / 5.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.1 / 2.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 0/0/100% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.9 | 0.9 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.3 | 1.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hellenic AC 5–1–0 Garuda FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Garuda FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Hellenic AC |
| 23/04/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Hellenic AC | 4-4 HT 1-2 | Garuda FC |
| 06/09/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Hellenic AC | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Garuda FC |
| 11/07/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Hellenic AC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Garuda FC |
| 27/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Garuda FC | 3-9 HT 2-4 | Hellenic AC |
| 23/08/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | Hellenic AC | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Garuda FC |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 21 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 91 | 21 | 58 |
| 2 | Mindil Aces | 20 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 74 | 19 | 43 |
| 3 | Darwin Olympic | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 61 | 36 | 37 |
| 4 | Port Darwin FC | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 62 | 50 | 34 |
| 5 | Darwin Hearts | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 52 | 45 | 33 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 47 | 18 |
| 7 | Hellenic AC | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 56 | 18 |
| 8 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 20 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 37 | 90 | 16 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 21 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 21 | 96 | 6 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hellenic AC | Garuda FC |
|---|---|---|
| Port Darwin FC | 2-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Darwin Olympic | 0-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Casuarina FC | 2-0 W | 3-2 W |
| University Azzurri FC | 0-3 L | 0-10 L |
| Mindil Aces | 1-4 L | 0-11 L |
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 2-1 W | 0-7 L |
| Darwin Hearts | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 4 L | 1 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Hellenic AC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hellenic AC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 07/08 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 23/07 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 03/07 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-5 | 0 | 4 | L |
Garuda FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-4 | 0-11 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 26/07 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-3 | 0-7 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 23/07 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 02/07 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 26/06 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-4 | 0-10 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 12/06 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-5 | 1-9 | 2 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hellenic AC vs Garuda FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hellenic AC win (73%). Probabilities: Hellenic AC 73%, draw 14%, Garuda FC 13%.
How many goals are expected in Hellenic AC vs Garuda FC?
The model expects 4.46 goals (Hellenic AC 3.14 · Garuda FC 1.32), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Hellenic AC vs Garuda FC?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.