Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 29/08, 10:30

Prediction: Darwin Hearts vs Darwin Olympic

Team pages: Darwin Hearts · Darwin Olympic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.38Total

Darwin Hearts1.99

Darwin Olympic2.39

1X2

33% 21% 47%

Darwin Hearts Draw Darwin Olympic

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Darwin Hearts 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWLLL

Darwin Olympic 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDLWWW

Head-to-head

Darwin Hearts 3–3 Darwin Olympic (6 last)

Darwin Olympic2-3Darwin Hearts
Darwin Hearts1-2Darwin Olympic
Darwin Olympic5-1Darwin Hearts
Darwin Hearts1-0Darwin Olympic
Darwin Olympic0-1Darwin Hearts
Darwin Hearts1-2Darwin Olympic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Darwin Hearts 1510 · Darwin Olympic 1560

	Darwin Hearts	Draw	Darwin Olympic
Our model	33%	21%	47%
Market	33%	21%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 4.38 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Darwin Olympic (rating 1510 vs 1560).
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Darwin Hearts	Darwin Olympic
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 2.3	3.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.8	2.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.6	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.75

X4.33

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 5.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
05:32 +11’	2.75	4.33	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Darwin Hearts 3–0–3 Darwin Olympic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	2-3 HT 1-3	Darwin Hearts
25/04/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Hearts	1-2 HT 1-0	Darwin Olympic
13/09/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	5-1 HT 2-1	Darwin Hearts
30/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Hearts	1-0 HT 0-0	Darwin Olympic
20/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	0-1 HT 0-0	Darwin Hearts
26/04/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Hearts	1-2 HT 1-1	Darwin Olympic

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	22	19	2	1	92	22	59
2	Mindil Aces	21	14	2	5	75	20	44
3	Darwin Olympic	21	11	4	6	61	36	37
4	Port Darwin FC	20	11	1	8	63	52	34
5	Darwin Hearts	21	10	3	8	54	48	33
6	Casuarina FC	20	6	3	11	37	49	21
7	Hellenic AC	22	5	4	13	30	58	19
8	Palmerston Rovers FC	21	6	1	14	39	91	19
9	Garuda FC	22	1	4	17	23	98	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Darwin Hearts	Darwin Olympic
Casuarina FC	2-3 L	2-2 D
University Azzurri FC	1-3 L	2-4 L
Mindil Aces	2-4 L	2-0 W
Palmerston Rovers FC	8-3 W	7-1 W
Port Darwin FC	4-4 D	1-0 W
Garuda FC	3-2 W	2-0 W
Hellenic AC	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Darwin Olympic (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Darwin Hearts

WWWWWDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	2-3	2	3	L
22/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	1-3	0	2	L
14/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	2-4	2	1	L
09/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	5-1	8-3	8	3	W
31/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	4-4	4	6	D
23/07	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-2	1	0	W
18/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
28/06	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	3-2	5	2	W
25/06	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	1	W
21/06	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	8	0	W

Darwin Olympic

WLLWWDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
18/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
15/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
08/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	2-4	2	3	L
02/08	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-2	2	2	D
25/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/07	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	6-1	7-1	11	5	W
02/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	3-4	5	5	L
28/06	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-3	2-3	4	2	L
12/06	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	5-1	9-1	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Darwin Hearts vs Darwin Olympic?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Darwin Olympic win (47%). Probabilities: Darwin Hearts 33%, draw 21%, Darwin Olympic 47%.

How many goals are expected in Darwin Hearts vs Darwin Olympic?

The model expects 4.38 goals (Darwin Hearts 1.99 · Darwin Olympic 2.39), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Darwin Hearts vs Darwin Olympic?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.