Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 02/09, 12:30
Prediction: Port Darwin FC vs Casuarina FC
Team pages: Port Darwin FC · Casuarina FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.51Total
Port Darwin FC2.58
Casuarina FC1.93
1X2
Port Darwin FC
Draw
Casuarina FC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 64%
Most likely score
2-1 7%
Recent form · 10 last
Port Darwin FC
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Casuarina FC
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Port Darwin FC
4–2
Casuarina FC
(6 last)
- Casuarina FC1-5Port Darwin FC
- Port Darwin FC4-0Casuarina FC
- Casuarina FC1-4Port Darwin FC
- Casuarina FC3-1Port Darwin FC
- Port Darwin FC4-2Casuarina FC
- Casuarina FC5-1Port Darwin FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Port Darwin FC 1473 · Casuarina FC 1399
| Port Darwin FC | Draw | Casuarina FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 20% | 29% |
| Market | 51% | 21% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.51 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Port Darwin FC (rating 1473 vs 1399).
- H2H favours Port Darwin FC: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Port Darwin FC | Casuarina FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 3.5 | 1.2 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.4 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.9 | 1.3 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.2 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Port Darwin FC 4–0–2 Casuarina FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 1-5 HT 1-3 | Port Darwin FC |
| 07/04/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | Port Darwin FC | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Casuarina FC |
| 05/09/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 1-4 HT 1-3 | Port Darwin FC |
| 12/07/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Port Darwin FC |
| 28/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Port Darwin FC | 4-2 HT 3-1 | Casuarina FC |
| 23/08/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 5-1 HT 1-1 | Port Darwin FC |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 99 | 22 | 62 |
| 2 | Mindil Aces | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 79 | 22 | 47 |
| 3 | Darwin Olympic | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 64 | 37 | 40 |
| 4 | Port Darwin FC | 21 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 65 | 56 | 34 |
| 5 | Darwin Hearts | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 55 | 51 | 33 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 39 | 51 | 22 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 41 | 93 | 20 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 30 | 58 | 19 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 23 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 23 | 105 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Port Darwin FC | Casuarina FC |
|---|---|---|
| Mindil Aces | 2-4 L | 0-3 L |
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Hellenic AC | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| University Azzurri FC | 1-7 L | 1-5 L |
| Garuda FC | 4-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Darwin Hearts | 4-4 D | 3-2 W |
| Darwin Olympic | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 5 L | 1 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Casuarina FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Port Darwin FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 26/08 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/08 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 1-7 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 25/07 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 02/07 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 25/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-4 | 0-8 | 7 | 3 | L |
Casuarina FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 26/08 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/08 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 03/07 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Port Darwin FC vs Casuarina FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Port Darwin FC win (51%). Probabilities: Port Darwin FC 51%, draw 20%, Casuarina FC 28%.
How many goals are expected in Port Darwin FC vs Casuarina FC?
The model expects 4.51 goals (Port Darwin FC 2.58 · Casuarina FC 1.93), with a 53% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Port Darwin FC vs Casuarina FC?
The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.