Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 05/09, 12:30

Prediction: Hellenic AC vs Darwin Hearts

Team pages: Hellenic AC · Darwin Hearts

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.09Total

Hellenic AC1.55

Darwin Hearts2.53

1X2

22% 19% 58%

Hellenic AC Draw Darwin Hearts

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Hellenic AC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLWLWD

Darwin Hearts 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWLLLL

Head-to-head

Hellenic AC 2–1–3 Darwin Hearts (6 last)

Darwin Hearts2-1Hellenic AC
Hellenic AC2-3Darwin Hearts
Darwin Hearts2-0Hellenic AC
Hellenic AC1-0Darwin Hearts
Hellenic AC1-1Darwin Hearts
Darwin Hearts1-3Hellenic AC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hellenic AC 1475 · Darwin Hearts 1505

	Hellenic AC	Draw	Darwin Hearts
Our model	22%	20%	58%
Market	22%	19%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 4.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Darwin Hearts: 3-1-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hellenic AC	Darwin Hearts
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	2.9 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	1.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.3	2.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.75

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.50 → 1.53▲	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:15 +8’	4.20	4.75	1.50
09:15 +4’	4.00▼	4.75	1.53▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hellenic AC 2–1–3 Darwin Hearts

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Hearts	2-1 HT 1-0	Hellenic AC
12/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Hellenic AC	2-3 HT 1-2	Darwin Hearts
09/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Hearts	2-0 HT 0-0	Hellenic AC
30/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Hellenic AC	1-0 HT 0-0	Darwin Hearts
15/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	Hellenic AC	1-1 HT 1-0	Darwin Hearts
28/03/25 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Hearts	1-3 HT 1-1	Hellenic AC

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	23	20	2	1	99	22	62
2	Mindil Aces	22	15	2	5	79	22	47
3	Darwin Olympic	22	12	4	6	64	37	40
4	Port Darwin FC	22	12	1	9	70	58	37
5	Darwin Hearts	22	10	3	9	55	51	33
6	Casuarina FC	22	6	4	12	41	56	22
7	Palmerston Rovers FC	22	6	2	14	41	93	20
8	Hellenic AC	22	5	4	13	30	58	19
9	Garuda FC	23	1	4	18	23	105	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hellenic AC	Darwin Hearts
Garuda FC	2-2 D	3-2 W
Port Darwin FC	2-0 W	4-4 D
Darwin Olympic	0-3 L	1-3 L
Casuarina FC	2-0 W	2-3 L
University Azzurri FC	0-3 L	1-3 L
Mindil Aces	1-4 L	2-4 L
Palmerston Rovers FC	2-1 W	8-3 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Darwin Hearts (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hellenic AC

WLLWLLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	2-2	1	1	D
22/08	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	2-0	8	2	W
15/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	0-3	0-3	2	3	L
07/08	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
01/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
26/07	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-3	1-4	0	0	L
23/07	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
18/07	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
03/07	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-3	7	0	L
20/06	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	1	W

Darwin Hearts

WWWWDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	1-3	8	0	L
26/08	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	2-3	2	3	L
22/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	1-3	0	2	L
14/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	2-4	2	1	L
09/08	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	5-1	8-3	8	3	W
31/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	4-4	4	6	D
23/07	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	3-2	1	0	W
18/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
28/06	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	3-1	3-2	5	2	W
25/06	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hellenic AC vs Darwin Hearts?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Darwin Hearts win (58%). Probabilities: Hellenic AC 22%, draw 19%, Darwin Hearts 58%.

How many goals are expected in Hellenic AC vs Darwin Hearts?

The model expects 4.09 goals (Hellenic AC 1.55 · Darwin Hearts 2.53), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hellenic AC vs Darwin Hearts?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.