Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 06/09, 08:30
Prediction: Mindil Aces vs Casuarina FC
Team pages: Mindil Aces · Casuarina FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.53Total
Mindil Aces3.26
Casuarina FC1.26
1X2
Mindil Aces
Draw
Casuarina FC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Mindil Aces
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Casuarina FC
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mindil Aces
5–1
Casuarina FC
(6 last)
- Casuarina FC0-3Mindil Aces
- Mindil Aces3-4Casuarina FC
- Casuarina FC1-3Mindil Aces
- Mindil Aces3-1Casuarina FC
- Casuarina FC2-3Mindil Aces
- Casuarina FC2-5Mindil Aces
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mindil Aces 1593 · Casuarina FC 1436
| Mindil Aces | Draw | Casuarina FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 84% | 10% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.53 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mindil Aces (rating 1593 vs 1436).
- H2H favours Mindil Aces: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mindil Aces | Casuarina FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.1 / 1 | 1.4 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/0/40% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 7.9 | 1.3 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mindil Aces 5–0–1 Casuarina FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Mindil Aces |
| 03/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Mindil Aces | 3-4 HT 2-1 | Casuarina FC |
| 25/07/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Mindil Aces |
| 23/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Mindil Aces | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Casuarina FC |
| 21/03/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Mindil Aces |
| 26/07/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 2-5 HT 1-2 | Mindil Aces |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 99 | 22 | 62 |
| 2 | Mindil Aces | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 79 | 22 | 47 |
| 3 | Darwin Olympic | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 64 | 37 | 40 |
| 4 | Port Darwin FC | 22 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 70 | 58 | 37 |
| 5 | Darwin Hearts | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 55 | 51 | 33 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 41 | 56 | 22 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 41 | 93 | 20 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 30 | 58 | 19 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 23 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 23 | 105 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mindil Aces | Casuarina FC |
|---|---|---|
| Port Darwin FC | 4-2 W | 2-5 L |
| University Azzurri FC | 1-1 D | 1-5 L |
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 5-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Darwin Olympic | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Darwin Hearts | 4-2 W | 3-2 W |
| Garuda FC | 11-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Hellenic AC | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Mindil Aces (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mindil Aces
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 27/08 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 12 | 0 | W |
| 18/08 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 14/08 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 4-2 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
4-0 | 11-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 26/07 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 19/07 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 03/07 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 24/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 6-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
Casuarina FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 2-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 26/08 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/08 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 03/07 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mindil Aces vs Casuarina FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mindil Aces win (80%). Probabilities: Mindil Aces 80%, draw 12%, Casuarina FC 8%.
How many goals are expected in Mindil Aces vs Casuarina FC?
The model expects 4.53 goals (Mindil Aces 3.26 · Casuarina FC 1.26), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Mindil Aces vs Casuarina FC?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.