Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 01/08, 17:30
Prediction: FK Buxoro vs Lokomotiv Tashkent
Team pages: FK Buxoro · Lokomotiv Tashkent
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.66Total
FK Buxoro1.24
Lokomotiv Tashkent1.43
1X2
FK Buxoro
Draw
Lokomotiv Tashkent
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FK Buxoro
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Lokomotiv Tashkent
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Buxoro
0–6
Lokomotiv Tashkent
(6 last)
- FK Buxoro1-3Lokomotiv Tashkent
- Lokomotiv Tashkent3-0FK Buxoro
- Lokomotiv Tashkent2-0FK Buxoro
- Lokomotiv Tashkent2-1FK Buxoro
- FK Buxoro0-2Lokomotiv Tashkent
- Lokomotiv Tashkent4-0FK Buxoro
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Buxoro 1488 · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1538
| FK Buxoro | Draw | Lokomotiv Tashkent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 28% | 40% |
| Market | 31% | 29% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lokomotiv Tashkent (rating 1488 vs 1538).
- H2H favours Lokomotiv Tashkent: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Buxoro | Lokomotiv Tashkent | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.7 | 2.1 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.3 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Buxoro 0–0–6 Lokomotiv Tashkent
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/20 Uzbekistan PFL | FK Buxoro | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Lokomotiv Tashkent |
| 15/03/20 Uzbekistan PFL | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 3-0 HT 2-0 | FK Buxoro |
| 19/10/19 Uzbekistan PFL | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FK Buxoro |
| 01/06/19 Uzbekistan Cup | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 2-1 HT 0-1 | FK Buxoro |
| 18/04/19 Uzbekistan PFL | FK Buxoro | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Lokomotiv Tashkent |
| 09/11/18 Uzbekistan PFL | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 4-0 HT 1-0 | FK Buxoro |
Standings · Uzbekistan PFL
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 6 | 35 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 14 | 33 |
| 3 | AGMK | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 25 |
| 4 | FK Buxoro | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 23 |
| 5 | Navbahor Namangan | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 22 |
| 6 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 22 |
| 7 | Nasaf Qarshi | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 21 |
| 8 | FK Andijan | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 16 | 20 |
| 9 | Dinamo Samarqand | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 25 | 20 |
| 10 | FC Bunyodkor | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 19 |
| 11 | Xorazm Urganch | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 16 |
| 12 | Termez Surkhon | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 15 |
| 13 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 14 |
| 14 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 33 | 12 |
| 15 | FK Kokand 1912 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 23 | 11 |
| 16 | Mashal Mubarek | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 24 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Buxoro | Lokomotiv Tashkent |
|---|---|---|
| FK Andijan | 0-2 L | 3-3 D |
| Sogdiana Jizzakh | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Pakhtakor Tashkent | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| AGMK | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Nasaf Qarshi | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Qizilqum Zarafshon | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Tashkent (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Buxoro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 21/07 | FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/07 | Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 26/05 | Guliston Uzbekistan Cup |
1-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 27/04 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/04 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 17/04 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
2-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 13/04 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 09/04 | Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
Lokomotiv Tashkent
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/07 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 17/07 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 20/05 | Gazalkent Uzbekistan Cup |
2-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 04/05 | Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 23/04 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 17/04 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 07/04 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Buxoro vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Lokomotiv Tashkent win (40%). Probabilities: FK Buxoro 31%, draw 29%, Lokomotiv Tashkent 40%.
How many goals are expected in FK Buxoro vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?
The model expects 2.66 goals (FK Buxoro 1.24 · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1.43), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Buxoro vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.