Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 08/08, 17:00

Prediction: Nasaf Qarshi vs FK Kokand 1912

Team pages: Nasaf Qarshi · FK Kokand 1912

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Nasaf Qarshi1.76

FK Kokand 19121

1X2

54% 26% 20%

Nasaf Qarshi Draw FK Kokand 1912

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nasaf Qarshi 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LDDWDWWDWW

FK Kokand 1912 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DDLLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Nasaf Qarshi 5–1–0 FK Kokand 1912 (6 last)

FK Kokand 19121-1Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi3-0FK Kokand 1912
FK Kokand 19120-2Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi2-1FK Kokand 1912
FK Kokand 19120-1Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi3-1FK Kokand 1912

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nasaf Qarshi 1569 · FK Kokand 1912 1416

	Nasaf Qarshi	Draw	FK Kokand 1912
Our model	54%	26%	20%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nasaf Qarshi (rating 1569 vs 1416).
H2H favours Nasaf Qarshi: 5-1-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nasaf Qarshi	FK Kokand 1912
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1	0.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.40

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.67▲	Pinn 1.69
X	3.60 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	5.75 → 4.50▼	Pinn 5.48 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:11 +3’	1.50	3.60	5.75
21:24 +8’	1.61▲	3.40▼	4.75▼
08:42 +7’	1.67▲	3.40	4.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:20 +11’	1.69	3.27	5.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nasaf Qarshi 5–1–0 FK Kokand 1912

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Kokand 1912	1-1 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi
16/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Kokand 1912
17/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Kokand 1912	0-2 HT 0-1	Nasaf Qarshi
16/09/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Kokand 1912
02/05/22 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Kokand 1912	0-1 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi
15/11/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	3-1 HT 1-0	FK Kokand 1912

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	15	11	3	1	33	6	36
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	16	10	5	1	28	16	35
3	Navbahor Namangan	16	8	4	4	24	14	28
4	FK Buxoro	16	8	3	5	21	18	27
5	AGMK	15	7	4	4	24	20	25
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	16	7	4	5	24	22	25
7	Nasaf Qarshi	15	6	6	3	19	14	24
8	FK Andijan	16	6	3	7	22	17	21
9	Dinamo Samarqand	16	6	3	7	25	27	21
10	FC Bunyodkor	15	6	1	8	14	19	19
11	Xorazm Urganch	16	5	4	7	14	22	19
12	Sogdiana Jizzakh	16	5	3	8	27	34	18
13	Termez Surkhon	16	5	3	8	15	23	18
14	Qizilqum Zarafshon	15	5	2	8	13	19	17
15	FK Kokand 1912	15	2	5	8	13	24	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	16	1	1	14	8	29	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nasaf Qarshi	FK Kokand 1912
AGMK	2-1 W	1-4 L
Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-0 W	1-2 L
Mashal Mubarek	1-1 D	0-1 L
FC Bunyodkor	3-1 W	1-0 W
FK Andijan	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nasaf Qarshi (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Nasaf Qarshi

LDDWDWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
28/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
22/07	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	10	2	D
16/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	6	3	W
26/05	Shurtan Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
21/05	FK Andijan Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
16/05	Havoqand Uzbekistan Cup	5-0	6-1	6	1	W
04/05	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
28/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
23/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-3	10	0	L

FK Kokand 1912

DDLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
29/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
22/07	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-4	6	3	L
17/07	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
16/05	AGMK Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
03/05	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
29/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-4	1	4	L
24/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	2	7	L
19/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
14/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-2	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nasaf Qarshi vs FK Kokand 1912?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nasaf Qarshi win (54%). Probabilities: Nasaf Qarshi 54%, draw 26%, FK Kokand 1912 20%.

How many goals are expected in Nasaf Qarshi vs FK Kokand 1912?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Nasaf Qarshi 1.76 · FK Kokand 1912 1), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nasaf Qarshi vs FK Kokand 1912?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.