Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 07/08, 16:30

Prediction: Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Dinamo Samarqand

Team pages: Lokomotiv Tashkent · Dinamo Samarqand

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Lokomotiv Tashkent1.81

Dinamo Samarqand1.48

1X2

44% 27% 30%

Lokomotiv Tashkent Draw Dinamo Samarqand

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Tashkent 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWDDWL

Dinamo Samarqand 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDWWWD

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Tashkent 2–2–2 Dinamo Samarqand (6 last)

Dinamo Samarqand1-2Lokomotiv Tashkent
Dinamo Samarqand1-2Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent0-2Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand0-0Lokomotiv Tashkent
Dinamo Samarqand3-1Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent0-0Dinamo Samarqand

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1525 · Dinamo Samarqand 1508

	Lokomotiv Tashkent	Draw	Dinamo Samarqand
Our model	45%	25%	31%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Tashkent	Dinamo Samarqand
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.5	1.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.4	1.5 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.16
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.32 ★
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.17

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:22 +8’	2.10	3.20	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:58	2.16	3.32	3.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Tashkent 2–2–2 Dinamo Samarqand

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	1-2 HT 0-2	Lokomotiv Tashkent
07/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	1-2 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
17/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-2 HT 0-2	Dinamo Samarqand
04/09/23 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Dinamo Samarqand	0-0 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
04/06/23 Uzbekistan Cup	Dinamo Samarqand	3-1 HT 1-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
13/04/23 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-0 HT 0-0	Dinamo Samarqand

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	15	11	3	1	33	6	36
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	15	10	4	1	26	14	34
3	FK Buxoro	15	8	2	5	19	16	26
4	AGMK	15	7	4	4	24	20	25
5	Navbahor Namangan	15	7	4	4	23	14	25
6	Nasaf Qarshi	15	6	6	3	19	14	24
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	15	6	4	5	22	21	22
8	FK Andijan	15	6	3	6	22	16	21
9	Dinamo Samarqand	15	6	3	6	24	25	21
10	FC Bunyodkor	15	6	1	8	14	19	19
11	Termez Surkhon	15	5	3	7	15	22	18
12	Qizilqum Zarafshon	15	5	2	8	13	19	17
13	Xorazm Urganch	15	4	4	7	12	22	16
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	15	4	3	8	26	34	15
15	FK Kokand 1912	15	2	5	8	13	24	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	15	1	1	13	8	27	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv Tashkent	Dinamo Samarqand
FK Andijan	3-3 D	1-2 L
Pakhtakor Tashkent	1-1 D	2-4 L
Gazalkent	5-1 W	2-3 L
Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-0 W	2-1 W
AGMK	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Tashkent (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lokomotiv Tashkent

WLWLWWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	2	3	L
27/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-1	3	4	W
22/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-3	6	3	D
17/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
20/05	Gazalkent Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	5-1	7	7	W
04/05	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
27/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
23/04	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-2	7	0	W
17/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-2	5	1	L
12/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	5	8	W

Dinamo Samarqand

LDLWLDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
29/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	3-2	1	4	W
23/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
18/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	1	0	W
15/05	Lokomotiv Bfk Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	2-2	3	1	D
10/05	Gazalkent Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	2-3	9	3	L
02/05	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-1	6	4	W
28/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	3	5	L
23/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
18/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-2	2-4	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Dinamo Samarqand?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Tashkent win (44%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Tashkent 44%, draw 27%, Dinamo Samarqand 30%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Dinamo Samarqand?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Lokomotiv Tashkent 1.81 · Dinamo Samarqand 1.48), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Dinamo Samarqand?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.