Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Neftchi Fergana vs Qizilqum Zarafshon

Team pages: Neftchi Fergana · Qizilqum Zarafshon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Neftchi Fergana2.3

Qizilqum Zarafshon0.69

1X2

73% 18% 9%

Neftchi Fergana Draw Qizilqum Zarafshon

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Neftchi Fergana 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLWWDD

Qizilqum Zarafshon 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWDLLDL

Head-to-head

Neftchi Fergana 3–3–0 Qizilqum Zarafshon (6 last)

Qizilqum Zarafshon0-4Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana4-1Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon1-1Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana2-2Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon1-1Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana1-0Qizilqum Zarafshon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Neftchi Fergana 1598 · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1440

	Neftchi Fergana	Draw	Qizilqum Zarafshon
Our model	73%	18%	9%
Market	73%	17%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Fergana (rating 1598 vs 1440).
H2H favours Neftchi Fergana: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Neftchi Fergana	Qizilqum Zarafshon
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1	0.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.9	1.4 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.25

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.85

2 (+1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.22▲	Bet365 1.22
X	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.91
2	11.00 → 9.50▼	Pinn 12.05 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +4’	1.20	5.25	11.00
03:35 +2’	1.20	5.75▲	11.00
08:39 +3’	1.22▲	5.25▼	9.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:07	1.20	6.02	12.44
05:59 +1’	1.21▲	5.91▼	12.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Neftchi Fergana 3–3–0 Qizilqum Zarafshon

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-4 HT 0-2	Neftchi Fergana
22/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	4-1 HT 2-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
28/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-1 HT 0-0	Neftchi Fergana
19/09/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	2-2 HT 2-1	Qizilqum Zarafshon
06/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-1 HT 0-1	Neftchi Fergana
23/11/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	1-0 HT 1-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	15	11	3	1	33	6	36
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	16	10	5	1	28	16	35
3	Navbahor Namangan	16	8	4	4	24	14	28
4	FK Buxoro	16	8	3	5	21	18	27
5	AGMK	15	7	4	4	24	20	25
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	16	7	4	5	24	22	25
7	Nasaf Qarshi	15	6	6	3	19	14	24
8	FK Andijan	16	6	3	7	22	17	21
9	Dinamo Samarqand	16	6	3	7	25	27	21
10	FC Bunyodkor	15	6	1	8	14	19	19
11	Xorazm Urganch	16	5	4	7	14	22	19
12	Sogdiana Jizzakh	16	5	3	8	27	34	18
13	Termez Surkhon	16	5	3	8	15	23	18
14	Qizilqum Zarafshon	15	5	2	8	13	19	17
15	FK Kokand 1912	15	2	5	8	13	24	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	16	1	1	14	8	29	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Neftchi Fergana	Qizilqum Zarafshon
Dinamo Samarqand	0-0 D	1-2 L
Navbahor Namangan	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sogdiana Jizzakh	5-1 W	1-3 L
FK Buxoro	2-1 W	0-2 L
FK Kokand 1912	4-0 W	2-1 W
Xorazm Urganch	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Neftchi Fergana (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Neftchi Fergana

WWDWWLWWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
28/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	7	9	D
21/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-1	6	5	W
16/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
08/07	Zenit St Petersburg Club Friendly List	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
26/05	BuxDu Uzbekistan Cup	4-0	6-2	10	0	W
11/05	Guliston Uzbekistan Cup	3-0	6-1	5	4	W
03/05	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
29/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	4-0	7	4	W
24/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	8	2	W

Qizilqum Zarafshon

LLLWWDLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
23/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
18/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	0	L
04/05	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
29/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
24/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	2	7	W
17/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
13/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-3	6	6	L
09/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
04/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-4	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Neftchi Fergana vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Neftchi Fergana win (73%). Probabilities: Neftchi Fergana 73%, draw 18%, Qizilqum Zarafshon 9%.

How many goals are expected in Neftchi Fergana vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Neftchi Fergana 2.3 · Qizilqum Zarafshon 0.69), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Neftchi Fergana vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.