Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 07/08, 16:00

Prediction: Navbahor Namangan vs Termez Surkhon

Team pages: Navbahor Namangan · Termez Surkhon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Navbahor Namangan1.66

Termez Surkhon0.81

1X2

57% 26% 18%

Navbahor Namangan Draw Termez Surkhon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Navbahor Namangan 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLDDLDDW

Termez Surkhon 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWWLLW

Head-to-head

Navbahor Namangan 3–2–1 Termez Surkhon (6 last)

Navbahor Namangan2-0Termez Surkhon
Navbahor Namangan0-0Termez Surkhon
Termez Surkhon1-0Navbahor Namangan
Termez Surkhon0-1Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan2-2Termez Surkhon
Termez Surkhon1-2Navbahor Namangan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Navbahor Namangan 1516 · Termez Surkhon 1513

	Navbahor Namangan	Draw	Termez Surkhon
Our model	56%	27%	17%
Market	57%	25%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Navbahor Namangan: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Navbahor Namangan	Termez Surkhon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.2	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 1.57▼	Pinn 5.12 ★
X	3.20 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	1.83 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +16’	4.00	3.20	1.83
15:42 +6’	1.57▼	3.60▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:57 +1’	5.12	3.57	1.66

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Navbahor Namangan 3–2–1 Termez Surkhon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	2-0 HT 1-0	Termez Surkhon
12/09/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	0-0 HT 0-0	Termez Surkhon
21/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	1-0 HT 0-0	Navbahor Namangan
26/08/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	0-1 HT 0-1	Navbahor Namangan
31/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	2-2 HT 0-2	Termez Surkhon
27/10/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	1-2 HT 0-1	Navbahor Namangan

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	15	11	3	1	33	6	36
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	15	10	4	1	26	14	34
3	FK Buxoro	15	8	2	5	19	16	26
4	AGMK	15	7	4	4	24	20	25
5	Navbahor Namangan	15	7	4	4	23	14	25
6	Nasaf Qarshi	15	6	6	3	19	14	24
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	15	6	4	5	22	21	22
8	FK Andijan	15	6	3	6	22	16	21
9	Dinamo Samarqand	15	6	3	6	24	25	21
10	FC Bunyodkor	15	6	1	8	14	19	19
11	Termez Surkhon	15	5	3	7	15	22	18
12	Qizilqum Zarafshon	15	5	2	8	13	19	17
13	Xorazm Urganch	15	4	4	7	12	22	16
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	15	4	3	8	26	34	15
15	FK Kokand 1912	15	2	5	8	13	24	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	15	1	1	13	8	27	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Navbahor Namangan	Termez Surkhon
Xorazm Urganch	5-1 W	0-1 L
Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-1 D	0-1 L
Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-1 D	2-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Navbahor Namangan (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Navbahor Namangan

WWDLDDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-1	7	1	W
28/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
23/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
17/07	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-3	5	4	L
18/05	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
04/05	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
29/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	7	8	L
23/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
17/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
12/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	5	3	W

Termez Surkhon

LWLDWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
28/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
23/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
18/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
27/05	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
18/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
03/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
28/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-5	6	3	L
22/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	9	5	W
17/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	4	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Navbahor Namangan vs Termez Surkhon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Navbahor Namangan win (57%). Probabilities: Navbahor Namangan 57%, draw 26%, Termez Surkhon 18%.

How many goals are expected in Navbahor Namangan vs Termez Surkhon?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Navbahor Namangan 1.66 · Termez Surkhon 0.81), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Navbahor Namangan vs Termez Surkhon?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.