Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 07/08, 17:00

Prediction: Xorazm Urganch vs Mashal Mubarek

Team pages: Xorazm Urganch · Mashal Mubarek

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Xorazm Urganch1.64

Mashal Mubarek0.68

1X2

60% 26% 15%

Xorazm Urganch Draw Mashal Mubarek

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Xorazm Urganch 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDLLWL

Mashal Mubarek 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWDLL

Head-to-head

Xorazm Urganch 3–2–1 Mashal Mubarek (6 last)

Mashal Mubarek0-1Xorazm Urganch
Mashal Mubarek0-3Xorazm Urganch
Xorazm Urganch3-0Mashal Mubarek
Xorazm Urganch0-0Mashal Mubarek
Mashal Mubarek2-1Xorazm Urganch
Xorazm Urganch0-0Mashal Mubarek

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Xorazm Urganch 1487 · Mashal Mubarek 1404

	Xorazm Urganch	Draw	Mashal Mubarek
Our model	59%	27%	14%
Market	60%	25%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Xorazm Urganch (rating 1487 vs 1404).
H2H favours Xorazm Urganch: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Xorazm Urganch	Mashal Mubarek
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.5	0.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	1.3 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	2.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.60

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:20 +11’	1.50	3.60	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Xorazm Urganch 3–2–1 Mashal Mubarek

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	0-1 HT 0-0	Xorazm Urganch
17/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	0-3 HT 0-2	Xorazm Urganch
18/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Xorazm Urganch	3-0 HT 2-0	Mashal Mubarek
21/11/24 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Xorazm Urganch	0-0 HT 0-0	Mashal Mubarek
18/09/24 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Mashal Mubarek	2-1	Xorazm Urganch
19/06/24 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Xorazm Urganch	0-0 HT 0-0	Mashal Mubarek

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	15	11	3	1	33	6	36
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	15	10	4	1	26	14	34
3	FK Buxoro	15	8	2	5	19	16	26
4	AGMK	15	7	4	4	24	20	25
5	Navbahor Namangan	15	7	4	4	23	14	25
6	Nasaf Qarshi	15	6	6	3	19	14	24
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	15	6	4	5	22	21	22
8	FK Andijan	15	6	3	6	22	16	21
9	Dinamo Samarqand	15	6	3	6	24	25	21
10	FC Bunyodkor	15	6	1	8	14	19	19
11	Termez Surkhon	15	5	3	7	15	22	18
12	Qizilqum Zarafshon	15	5	2	8	13	19	17
13	Xorazm Urganch	15	4	4	7	12	22	16
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	15	4	3	8	26	34	15
15	FK Kokand 1912	15	2	5	8	13	24	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	15	1	1	13	8	27	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Xorazm Urganch	Mashal Mubarek
Termez Surkhon	1-0 W	1-2 L
Sogdiana Jizzakh	0-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Xorazm Urganch (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Xorazm Urganch

WLDLWDLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-5	0	1	L
28/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
21/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
16/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	5	0	L
18/05	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	1-1	9	6	D
12/05	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
04/05	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
29/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
24/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
18/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	9	2	W

Mashal Mubarek

LLLLLLWDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-3	3	1	L
27/07	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
22/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
17/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
14/05	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan Cup	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
09/05	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan Cup	1-2	1-3	2	4	L
02/05	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-3	0	4	L
27/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
22/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
18/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Xorazm Urganch vs Mashal Mubarek?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Xorazm Urganch win (60%). Probabilities: Xorazm Urganch 60%, draw 26%, Mashal Mubarek 15%.

How many goals are expected in Xorazm Urganch vs Mashal Mubarek?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Xorazm Urganch 1.64 · Mashal Mubarek 0.68), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Xorazm Urganch vs Mashal Mubarek?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.