Football · Italy Serie C Cup · 14/08, 21:00
Prediction: Audace Cerignola vs Monopoli
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.44Total
Audace Cerignola1.35
Monopoli1.1
1X2
Audace Cerignola
Draw
Monopoli
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Audace Cerignola
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Monopoli
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Audace Cerignola
1–3–2
Monopoli
(6 last)
- Audace Cerignola0-0Monopoli
- Monopoli2-0Audace Cerignola
- Audace Cerignola1-0Monopoli
- Monopoli1-1Audace Cerignola
- Audace Cerignola1-3Monopoli
- Monopoli2-2Audace Cerignola
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Audace Cerignola 1488 · Monopoli 1467
| Audace Cerignola | Draw | Monopoli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 30% | 29% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Monopoli: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Audace Cerignola | Monopoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.9 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.8 | 1.5 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Audace Cerignola 1–3–2 Monopoli
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/26 Italy Serie C Group C | Audace Cerignola | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Monopoli |
| 12/09/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Monopoli | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Audace Cerignola |
| 30/03/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Audace Cerignola | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Monopoli |
| 18/11/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Monopoli | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Audace Cerignola |
| 10/03/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Audace Cerignola | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Monopoli |
| 06/11/23 Italy Serie C Group C | Monopoli | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Audace Cerignola |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Audace Cerignola | Monopoli |
|---|---|---|
| Benevento | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Casertana | 1-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Atalanta U23 | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Trapani | 4-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Audace Cerignola
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05 | Crotone Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Benevento Italy Serie C Group C |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 19/04 | Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 12/04 | Casertana Italy Serie C Group C |
0-4 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 29/03 | Crotone Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 22/03 | Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 15/03 | Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 09/03 | Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/03 | Trapani Italy Serie C Group C |
3-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
Monopoli
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Lecce Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 03/08 | Vibonese Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | Casarano Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Potenza Italy Serie C Group C |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 19/04 | Foggia Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | Trapani Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 29/03 | AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 23/03 | Benevento Italy Serie C Group C |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 15/03 | Casertana Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Audace Cerignola vs Monopoli?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Audace Cerignola win (41%). Probabilities: Audace Cerignola 41%, draw 30%, Monopoli 29%.
How many goals are expected in Audace Cerignola vs Monopoli?
The model expects 2.44 goals (Audace Cerignola 1.35 · Monopoli 1.1), with a 57% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Audace Cerignola vs Monopoli?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.