Football · Italy Serie C Cup · 16/08, 21:00
Prediction: Lecco vs Desenzano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.33Total
Lecco1.61
Desenzano0.72
1X2
Lecco
Draw
Desenzano
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Lecco
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Desenzano
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lecco 1471 · Desenzano 1542
| Lecco | Draw | Desenzano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 27% | 15% |
| Market | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Desenzano (rating 1471 vs 1542).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lecco | Desenzano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 50/25/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.2 | 2.2 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 2 / 0.3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lecco
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Atalanta U23 Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 05/08 | Inter Milan U23 Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 02/08 | Verona Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 20/05 | Catania Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
2-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Catania Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | US Pianese Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | US Pianese Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
Desenzano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Giana Erminio Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 06/08 | ASD Calcio Pavonese Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 02/08 | Parma U20 Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 31/05 | Scafatese Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Scafatese Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Grosseto Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie D |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Sangiuliano City FC Italy Serie D |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Pistoiese Italy Serie D |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 19/04 | Imolese Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lecco vs Desenzano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lecco win (58%). Probabilities: Lecco 58%, draw 26%, Desenzano 16%.
How many goals are expected in Lecco vs Desenzano?
The model expects 2.33 goals (Lecco 1.61 · Desenzano 0.72), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Lecco vs Desenzano?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.