Football · Italy Serie C Cup · 16/08, 21:00
Prediction: Bari vs Casarano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
Bari1.45
Casarano1.15
1X2
Bari
Draw
Casarano
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bari
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Casarano
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bari 1513 · Casarano 1565
| Bari | Draw | Casarano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Casarano (rating 1513 vs 1565).
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bari | Casarano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1 | 1.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.4 | 1.4 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.2 | 2.7 / 0.3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bari
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | FBC Gravina Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Lanciano Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 22/05 | Sudtirol Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Sudtirol Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 08/05 | Catanzaro Italy Serie B |
2-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Virtus Entella Italy Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 24/04 | Avellino Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Venezia Italy Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Monza Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | Modena Italy Serie B |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
Casarano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05 | Union Brescia Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Union Brescia Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 13/05 | Renate Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Renate Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-2 | 0-2 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 06/05 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
1-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Crotone Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 12/04 | US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 06/04 | Potenza Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bari vs Casarano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bari win (43%). Probabilities: Bari 43%, draw 28%, Casarano 29%.
How many goals are expected in Bari vs Casarano?
The model expects 2.61 goals (Bari 1.45 · Casarano 1.15), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Casarano?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.