Football · Italy Serie C Cup · 16/08, 21:00
Prediction: Giana Erminio vs US Folgore Caratese
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.33Total
Giana Erminio1.26
US Folgore Caratese1.07
1X2
Giana Erminio
Draw
US Folgore Caratese
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Giana Erminio
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
US Folgore Caratese
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Giana Erminio 1507 · US Folgore Caratese 1510
| Giana Erminio | Draw | US Folgore Caratese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| Market | 39% | 31% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Giana Erminio | US Folgore Caratese | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 13/63/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.4 | 3.2 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Giana Erminio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Desenzano Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 24/07 | Cremonese Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 06/05 | Lecco Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Trento Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Triestina Italy Serie C Group A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 06/04 | AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 28/03 | A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 21/03 | US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
US Folgore Caratese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Sassuolo Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 25/07 | Arezzo Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | FC Vado Italy Serie D |
0-2 | 0-3 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 13/05 | Treviso Italy Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | ASD Brusaporto Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Real Calepina FC Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Oltrepò Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 29/03 | ASD Caldiero Terme Italy Serie D |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/03 | US Breno Italy Serie D |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/03 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Giana Erminio vs US Folgore Caratese?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Giana Erminio win (39%). Probabilities: Giana Erminio 39%, draw 31%, US Folgore Caratese 30%.
How many goals are expected in Giana Erminio vs US Folgore Caratese?
The model expects 2.33 goals (Giana Erminio 1.26 · US Folgore Caratese 1.07), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Giana Erminio vs US Folgore Caratese?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.