Football · Italy Serie C Cup · 16/08, 21:00

Prediction: Crotone vs Cosenza

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
Crotone1.63
Cosenza1.41
1X2
41% 27% 32%
Crotone Draw Cosenza
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Crotone 4-3-3 (W-D-L)
WLDWLWWLDD
Cosenza 5-2-3 (W-D-L)
WWLWDWLWDL
Head-to-head
Crotone 2–3–1 Cosenza (6 last)
  • Cosenza0-2Crotone
  • Crotone0-0Cosenza
  • Crotone3-3Cosenza
  • Cosenza1-0Crotone
  • Cosenza0-1Crotone
  • Crotone0-0Cosenza
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Crotone 1524 · Cosenza 1514
CrotoneDrawCosenza
Our model42%26%32%
Market41%28%31%
Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Crotone: 2-3-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

CrotoneCosenza
Goals for / against (FT)1.7 / 1.41.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)0.7 / 0.30.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/60/0%40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)2 / 4.11.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.2 / 03.9 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Crotone 231 Cosenza

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DateHomeScoreAway
19/01/26
Italy Serie C Group C
Cosenza0-2
HT 0-1
Crotone
07/09/25
Italy Serie C Group C
Crotone0-0
HT 0-0
Cosenza
23/02/22
Italy Serie B
Crotone3-3
HT 0-2
Cosenza
25/09/21
Italy Serie B
Cosenza1-0
HT 0-0
Crotone
20/01/20
Italy Serie B
Cosenza0-1
HT 0-1
Crotone
24/08/19
Italy Serie B
Crotone0-0
HT 0-0
Cosenza

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentCrotoneCosenza
US Latina Calcio 2-5 L 3-1 W
Casarano 2-1 W 1-5 L
Trapani 4-1 W 1-0 W
Record vs common 2 W 0 D 1 L 2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Crotone (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Crotone

WLDWLWWLDD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
06/05 Casertana
Italy Serie C Play-Offs
1-0 1-1 52 D
03/05 Audace Cerignola
Italy Serie C Play-Offs
0-0 1-1 85 D
26/04 US Latina Calcio
Italy Serie C Group C
2-1 2-5 34 L
19/04 Casarano
Italy Serie C Group C
0-0 2-1 14 W
13/04 Catania
Italy Serie C Group C
1-0 2-0 43 W
06/04 Giugliano
Italy Serie C Group C
0-0 0-1 102 L
29/03 Audace Cerignola
Italy Serie C Group C
0-0 3-1 56 W
22/03 Sorrento Calcio
Italy Serie C Group C
1-1 2-2 03 D
15/03 Salernitana
Italy Serie C Group C
0-0 0-1 48 L
08/03 Trapani
Italy Serie C Group C
2-1 4-1 15 W

Cosenza

WWLWDWLWDL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
06/05 Casarano
Italy Serie C Play-Offs
1-1 1-5 12 L
26/04 Cavese
Italy Serie C Group C
1-0 1-1 22 D
19/04 Trapani
Italy Serie C Group C
0-0 1-0 93 W
13/04 AZ Picerno ASD
Italy Serie C Group C
1-1 1-3 25 L
04/04 Foggia
Italy Serie C Group C
1-0 1-0 25 W
29/03 Benevento
Italy Serie C Group C
1-1 1-1 16 D
22/03 US Latina Calcio
Italy Serie C Group C
1-1 3-1 65 W
14/03 Casarano
Italy Serie C Group C
0-2 1-2 53 L
08/03 Team Altamura
Italy Serie C Group C
1-0 1-0 55 W
05/03 Potenza
Italy Serie C Group C
2-1 4-1 64 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Crotone vs Cosenza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Crotone win (41%). Probabilities: Crotone 41%, draw 27%, Cosenza 32%.

How many goals are expected in Crotone vs Cosenza?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Crotone 1.63 · Cosenza 1.41), with a 59% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Crotone vs Cosenza?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.