Football · Italy Serie C Cup · 16/08, 18:00
Prediction: Spezia vs Torres
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.18Total
Spezia2.22
Torres0.97
1X2
Spezia
Draw
Torres
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Spezia
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Torres
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Spezia 1459 · Torres 1574
| Spezia | Draw | Torres | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Market | 63% | 24% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Torres (rating 1459 vs 1574).
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Spezia | Torres | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.1 | 2 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 0.9 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.1 | 1.8 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.6 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Spezia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Empoli Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 08/05 | Pescara Italy Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 01/05 | Venezia Italy Serie B |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | Catanzaro Italy Serie B |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Sudtirol Italy Serie B |
3-1 | 6-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Mantova Italy Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 06/04 | Carrarese Italy Serie B |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 21/03 | Juve Stabia Italy Serie B |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 17/03 | Empoli Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 13/03 | Modena Italy Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
Torres
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | USD Latte Dolce Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 05/08 | Polisportiva Ossese Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 31/07 | Alghero Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 7-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | AC Bra Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | AC Bra Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Arezzo Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 11/04 | ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 28/03 | Livorno Italy Serie C Group B |
3-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 20/03 | Perugia Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Spezia vs Torres?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Spezia win (64%). Probabilities: Spezia 64%, draw 22%, Torres 14%.
How many goals are expected in Spezia vs Torres?
The model expects 3.18 goals (Spezia 2.22 · Torres 0.97), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Torres?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.