Football · Italy Serie C Cup · 15/08, 21:00
Prediction: AC Carpi vs US Pianese
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.19Total
AC Carpi1.21
US Pianese0.98
1X2
AC Carpi
Draw
US Pianese
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
AC Carpi
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
US Pianese
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AC Carpi
1–2–2
US Pianese
(5 last)
- AC Carpi1-1US Pianese
- US Pianese0-1AC Carpi
- AC Carpi0-1US Pianese
- US Pianese1-0AC Carpi
- AC Carpi1-1US Pianese
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AC Carpi 1485 · US Pianese 1518
| AC Carpi | Draw | US Pianese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 32% | 28% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours US Pianese: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AC Carpi | US Pianese | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 2.9 | 3.2 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.2 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Carpi 1–2–2 US Pianese
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/26 Italy Serie C Group B | AC Carpi | 1-1 HT 0-0 | US Pianese |
| 31/08/25 Italy Serie C Group B | US Pianese | 0-1 HT 0-1 | AC Carpi |
| 22/02/25 Italy Serie C Group B | AC Carpi | 0-1 HT 0-0 | US Pianese |
| 13/10/24 Italy Serie C Group B | US Pianese | 1-0 HT 0-0 | AC Carpi |
| 15/05/24 Italy Serie D | AC Carpi | 1-1 HT 0-1 | US Pianese |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AC Carpi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Mantova Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 01/08 | Pistoiese Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/07 | Cesena Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Forli Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 12/04 | Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 03/04 | Pontedera Italy Serie C Group B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 21/03 | ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 14/03 | Livorno Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 08/03 | Torres Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
US Pianese
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Gavorrano Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 05/08 | Aquila 1902 Montevarchi Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 13/05 | Lecco Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | Lecco Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Ternana Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Ternana Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 11/04 | Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 04/04 | Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AC Carpi vs US Pianese?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Carpi win (41%). Probabilities: AC Carpi 41%, draw 31%, US Pianese 29%.
How many goals are expected in AC Carpi vs US Pianese?
The model expects 2.19 goals (AC Carpi 1.21 · US Pianese 0.98), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in AC Carpi vs US Pianese?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.