Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 01/08, 23:00
Prediction: Monagas vs Deportivo La Guaira
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Monagas0.98
Deportivo La Guaira1.33
1X2
Monagas
Draw
Deportivo La Guaira
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Monagas
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Deportivo La Guaira
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Monagas
0–1–5
Deportivo La Guaira
(6 last)
- Deportivo La Guaira2-0Monagas
- Deportivo La Guaira2-1Monagas
- Monagas0-1Deportivo La Guaira
- Deportivo La Guaira2-0Monagas
- Monagas1-1Deportivo La Guaira
- Monagas0-2Deportivo La Guaira
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Monagas 1499 · Deportivo La Guaira 1506
| Monagas | Draw | Deportivo La Guaira | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 30% | 44% |
| Market | 26% | 30% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Deportivo La Guaira: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Monagas | Deportivo La Guaira | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 2.2 | 2.1 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 5.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Monagas 0–1–5 Deportivo La Guaira
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo La Guaira | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Monagas |
| 01/11/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo La Guaira | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Monagas |
| 25/10/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Monagas | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo La Guaira |
| 08/07/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo La Guaira | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Monagas |
| 25/01/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Monagas | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo La Guaira |
| 17/11/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Monagas | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Deportivo La Guaira |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Carabobo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caracas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo La Guaira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo Tachira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Estudiantes Merida | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Monagas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Portuguesa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Trujillanos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | UCV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zamora | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Monagas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 12/04 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 04/04 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 23/03 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 19/03 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 15/03 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 09/03 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 04/03 | Academia Puerto Cabello Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
Deportivo La Guaira
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 28/05 | Fluminense Copa Libertadores |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 22/05 | Independiente Rivadavia Copa Libertadores |
1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 10 | D |
| 13/05 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 07/05 | Bolivar Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 01/05 | Independiente Rivadavia Copa Libertadores |
1-3 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Monagas vs Deportivo La Guaira?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportivo La Guaira win (44%). Probabilities: Monagas 26%, draw 30%, Deportivo La Guaira 44%.
How many goals are expected in Monagas vs Deportivo La Guaira?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Monagas 0.98 · Deportivo La Guaira 1.33), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Monagas vs Deportivo La Guaira?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.