Football · Romania Liga 2 · 17/10, 10:00

Prediction: CSM Satu Mare vs AFC Metalul Buzau

Team pages: CSM Satu Mare · AFC Metalul Buzau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

CSM Satu Mare0.81

AFC Metalul Buzau1.44

1X2

21% 28% 51%

CSM Satu Mare Draw AFC Metalul Buzau

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CSM Satu Mare 0-6-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLDLDDLD

AFC Metalul Buzau 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLDWWW

Head-to-head

CSM Satu Mare 1–0 AFC Metalul Buzau (1 last)

AFC Metalul Buzau0-1CSM Satu Mare

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CSM Satu Mare 1438 · AFC Metalul Buzau 1564

	CSM Satu Mare	Draw	AFC Metalul Buzau
Our model	20%	29%	51%
Market	22%	26%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AFC Metalul Buzau (rating 1438 vs 1564).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CSM Satu Mare	AFC Metalul Buzau
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.4	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.9	2.8 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.40

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:15 +4’	4.10	3.40	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CSM Satu Mare 1–0–0 AFC Metalul Buzau

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/09/25 Romania Liga 2	AFC Metalul Buzau	0-1 HT 0-0	CSM Satu Mare

Standings · Romania Liga 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSM Slatina	9	7	1	1	18	8	22
2	Stiinta Poli Timisoara	9	6	3	0	19	8	21
3	Scolar Resita	9	7	0	2	16	9	21
4	Chindia Targoviste	9	6	0	3	20	10	18
5	Gloria Popesti Leordeni	9	5	3	1	22	14	18
6	CS Afumati	9	5	2	2	16	12	17
7	AFC Metalul Buzau	9	5	2	2	10	7	17
8	FC Bacau	9	4	3	2	19	9	15
9	Cetate Suceava	9	4	3	2	18	12	15
10	CS Concordia Chiajna	9	5	0	4	19	16	15
11	Gloria Bistrita	9	5	0	4	13	10	15
12	FC Bihor Oradea	9	3	3	3	14	10	12
13	ASA Targu Mures	9	3	2	4	12	16	11
14	Metaloglobus Bucuresti	9	3	2	4	11	15	11
15	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	9	3	2	4	10	14	11
16	FC Unirea 2004 Slobozia	9	2	1	6	12	12	7
17	CSA Steaua Bucuresti	9	1	3	5	10	18	6
18	CSC 1599 Selimbar	9	1	3	5	7	15	6
19	CS Stefanesti	9	2	0	7	6	19	6
20	CSM Satu Mare	9	0	5	4	5	12	5
21	CS Dinamo Bucuresti	9	1	1	7	11	29	4
22	CSC Dumbravita	9	0	3	6	6	19	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CSM Satu Mare	AFC Metalul Buzau
CS Dinamo Bucuresti	2-2 D	1-0 W
CS Afumati	0-2 L	3-1 W
Metaloglobus Bucuresti	1-1 D	0-0 D
CS Concordia Chiajna	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: AFC Metalul Buzau (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CSM Satu Mare

DDLLDLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	CS Dinamo Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	2-1	2-2	7	9	D
19/09	CS Afumati Romania Liga 2	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
12/09	Metaloglobus Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Stiinta Poli Timisoara Romania Liga 2	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
29/08	Gloria Bistrita Romania Liga 2	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
22/08	FC Bihor Oradea Romania Liga 2	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
15/08	Cetate Suceava Romania Liga 2	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
08/08	Scolar Resita Romania Liga 2	0-2	0-2	7	5	L
05/08	CSC Dumbravita Romania Liga 2	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
09/05	CS Concordia Chiajna Romania Liga 2	1-1	2-2	4	9	D

AFC Metalul Buzau

WDWWLLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	ASA Targu Mures Romania Liga 2	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
19/09	CS Concordia Chiajna Romania Liga 2	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
13/09	FC Unirea 2004 Slobozia Romania Liga 2	0-0	2-0	12	3	W
05/09	CSC 1599 Selimbar Romania Liga 2	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
29/08	Chindia Targoviste Romania Liga 2	1-1	1-3	7	7	L
22/08	CSM Slatina Romania Liga 2	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
15/08	CS Dinamo Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
08/08	CS Afumati Romania Liga 2	0-1	3-1	4	4	W
01/08	Metaloglobus Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
09/05	FC Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt Romania Liga 2	2-0	3-0	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CSM Satu Mare vs AFC Metalul Buzau?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AFC Metalul Buzau win (51%). Probabilities: CSM Satu Mare 21%, draw 28%, AFC Metalul Buzau 51%.

How many goals are expected in CSM Satu Mare vs AFC Metalul Buzau?

The model expects 2.25 goals (CSM Satu Mare 0.81 · AFC Metalul Buzau 1.44), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CSM Satu Mare vs AFC Metalul Buzau?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.