Football · Romania Liga 2 · 25/10, 10:00

Prediction: Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare

Team pages: Chindia Targoviste · CSM Satu Mare

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Chindia Targoviste1.85

CSM Satu Mare0.94

1X2

58% 23% 18%

Chindia Targoviste Draw CSM Satu Mare

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chindia Targoviste 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLWWWW

CSM Satu Mare 0-6-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDLDDLDD

Head-to-head

Chindia Targoviste 1–0 CSM Satu Mare (1 last)

CSM Satu Mare2-4Chindia Targoviste

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chindia Targoviste 1563 · CSM Satu Mare 1437

	Chindia Targoviste	Draw	CSM Satu Mare
Our model	58%	25%	18%
Market	59%	22%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chindia Targoviste (rating 1563 vs 1437).
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chindia Targoviste	CSM Satu Mare
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.2	0.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5	2.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.10

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +27’	1.53	4.10	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chindia Targoviste 1–0–0 CSM Satu Mare

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/08/25 Romania Liga 2	CSM Satu Mare	2-4 HT 1-2	Chindia Targoviste

Standings · Romania Liga 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSM Slatina	10	8	1	1	19	8	25
2	Stiinta Poli Timisoara	10	7	3	0	20	8	24
3	Chindia Targoviste	10	7	0	3	24	12	21
4	Gloria Popesti Leordeni	10	6	3	1	24	14	21
5	Scolar Resita	11	7	0	4	16	13	21
6	FC Bacau	10	5	3	2	22	9	18
7	CS Concordia Chiajna	10	6	0	4	24	16	18
8	Cetate Suceava	10	5	3	2	20	12	18
9	FC Bihor Oradea	11	5	3	3	18	10	18
10	AFC Metalul Buzau	10	5	3	2	10	7	18
11	CS Afumati	10	5	2	3	16	14	17
12	Gloria Bistrita	10	5	0	5	13	13	15
13	Metaloglobus Bucuresti	10	3	3	4	11	15	12
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	10	3	2	5	10	15	11
15	ASA Targu Mures	10	3	2	5	14	20	11
16	FC Unirea 2004 Slobozia	10	2	1	7	12	13	7
17	CSA Steaua Bucuresti	10	1	4	5	10	18	7
18	CS Dinamo Bucuresti	10	2	1	7	15	30	7
19	CSM Satu Mare	10	0	6	4	5	12	6
20	CSC 1599 Selimbar	10	1	3	6	7	20	6
21	CS Stefanesti	10	2	0	8	7	23	6
22	CSC Dumbravita	10	0	3	7	6	21	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chindia Targoviste	CSM Satu Mare
AFC Metalul Buzau	3-1 W	0-0 D
CS Dinamo Bucuresti	1-2 L	2-2 D
CS Afumati	3-0 W	0-2 L
Metaloglobus Bucuresti	3-1 W	1-1 D
Stiinta Poli Timisoara	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chindia Targoviste (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chindia Targoviste

LWWLWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	ASA Targu Mures Romania Liga 2	3-2	4-2	4	4	W
10/10	CS Concordia Chiajna Romania Liga 2	2-0	3-2	7	4	W
19/09	FC Unirea 2004 Slobozia Romania Liga 2	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
13/09	CSC 1599 Selimbar Romania Liga 2	1-0	4-0	2	7	W
04/09	CSM Slatina Romania Liga 2	0-1	2-3	6	4	L
29/08	AFC Metalul Buzau Romania Liga 2	1-1	3-1	2	7	W
21/08	CS Dinamo Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
15/08	CS Afumati Romania Liga 2	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
09/08	Metaloglobus Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	1-0	3-1	12	3	W
04/08	Stiinta Poli Timisoara Romania Liga 2	0-1	0-1	3	9	L

CSM Satu Mare

DLLDLDDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	AFC Metalul Buzau Romania Liga 2	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
10/10	CS Dinamo Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	2-1	2-2	7	9	D
19/09	CS Afumati Romania Liga 2	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
12/09	Metaloglobus Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Stiinta Poli Timisoara Romania Liga 2	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
29/08	Gloria Bistrita Romania Liga 2	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
22/08	FC Bihor Oradea Romania Liga 2	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
15/08	Cetate Suceava Romania Liga 2	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
08/08	Scolar Resita Romania Liga 2	0-2	0-2	7	5	L
05/08	CSC Dumbravita Romania Liga 2	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chindia Targoviste win (58%). Probabilities: Chindia Targoviste 58%, draw 23%, CSM Satu Mare 18%.

How many goals are expected in Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Chindia Targoviste 1.85 · CSM Satu Mare 0.94), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chindia Targoviste vs CSM Satu Mare?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.