Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 16/09, 18:00

Prediction: Paide Linnameeskond vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Team pages: Paide Linnameeskond · Parnu JK Vaprus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

Paide Linnameeskond2.35

Parnu JK Vaprus1.19

1X2

62% 21% 17%

Paide Linnameeskond Draw Parnu JK Vaprus

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Paide Linnameeskond 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Parnu JK Vaprus 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLDWWL

Head-to-head

Paide Linnameeskond 4–2 Parnu JK Vaprus (6 last)

Paide Linnameeskond3-1Parnu JK Vaprus
Paide Linnameeskond2-0Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus3-2Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond3-0Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus1-0Paide Linnameeskond
Parnu JK Vaprus1-2Paide Linnameeskond

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paide Linnameeskond 1499 · Parnu JK Vaprus 1493

	Paide Linnameeskond	Draw	Parnu JK Vaprus
Our model	62%	20%	17%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Paide Linnameeskond: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paide Linnameeskond	Parnu JK Vaprus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.8 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.33

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.56
2	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.55 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:09	1.44	4.33	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:11 +3’	1.43	4.56	5.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Paide Linnameeskond 4–0–2 Parnu JK Vaprus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	3-1 HT 2-1	Parnu JK Vaprus
06/05/26 Estonia Cup	Paide Linnameeskond	2-0 HT 1-0	Parnu JK Vaprus
07/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	3-2 HT 0-0	Paide Linnameeskond
02/11/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	3-0 HT 1-0	Parnu JK Vaprus
30/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	1-0 HT 1-0	Paide Linnameeskond
18/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	1-2 HT 1-2	Paide Linnameeskond

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	27	21	5	1	74	20	68
2	FC Flora Tallinn	28	17	1	10	56	37	52
3	JK Nomme Kalju	28	14	5	9	49	26	47
4	Paide Linnameeskond	27	13	6	8	43	35	45
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	27	14	2	11	36	38	44
6	Parnu JK Vaprus	27	10	4	13	37	52	34
7	Harju JK Laagri	28	11	1	16	40	47	34
8	JK Nomme United	28	9	1	18	46	65	28
9	FC Kuressaare	28	8	4	16	31	49	28
10	JK Trans Narva	28	5	3	20	21	64	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paide Linnameeskond	Parnu JK Vaprus
Harju JK Laagri	1-2 L	3-2 W
JK Tammeka Tartu	2-0 W	5-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-2 L	0-4 L
FC Flora Tallinn	2-1 W	1-2 L
JK Nomme United	4-1 W	1-0 W
JK Trans Narva	1-1 D	1-3 L
FC Kuressaare	1-0 W	2-2 D
JK Nomme Kalju	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Paide Linnameeskond (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paide Linnameeskond

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	6	11	L
09/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	1	7	W
06/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
23/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	4-1	8	2	W
16/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
02/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
19/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-5	2-5	7	9	L
04/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
28/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	3	3	D

Parnu JK Vaprus

LWLDLLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-4	5	4	L
09/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
05/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
29/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
23/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	1	2	L
16/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	5	L
02/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
18/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
11/07	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	5-1	0	6	W
04/07	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paide Linnameeskond vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Paide Linnameeskond win (62%). Probabilities: Paide Linnameeskond 62%, draw 21%, Parnu JK Vaprus 17%.

How many goals are expected in Paide Linnameeskond vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

The model expects 3.55 goals (Paide Linnameeskond 2.35 · Parnu JK Vaprus 1.19), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Paide Linnameeskond vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.