Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: JK Nomme United vs Paide Linnameeskond

Team pages: JK Nomme United · Paide Linnameeskond

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

JK Nomme United1.28

Paide Linnameeskond2.08

1X2

22% 23% 55%

JK Nomme United Draw Paide Linnameeskond

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme United 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLLLWL

Paide Linnameeskond 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWWLWL

Head-to-head

JK Nomme United 0–6 Paide Linnameeskond (6 last)

Paide Linnameeskond4-1JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United2-3Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond3-1JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United0-4Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond7-2JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United0-1Paide Linnameeskond

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme United 1449 · Paide Linnameeskond 1515

	JK Nomme United	Draw	Paide Linnameeskond
Our model	22%	23%	55%
Market	22%	22%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paide Linnameeskond (rating 1449 vs 1515).
H2H favours Paide Linnameeskond: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme United	Paide Linnameeskond
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.2	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.6	2.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.00

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +2’	4.00	4.00	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme United 0–0–6 Paide Linnameeskond

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	4-1 HT 1-1	JK Nomme United
10/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	2-3 HT 0-2	Paide Linnameeskond
08/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	3-1 HT 1-0	JK Nomme United
03/11/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	0-4 HT 0-1	Paide Linnameeskond
14/09/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	7-2 HT 5-0	JK Nomme United
12/05/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	0-1 HT 0-1	Paide Linnameeskond

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	27	21	5	1	74	20	68
2	FC Flora Tallinn	28	17	1	10	56	37	52
3	JK Nomme Kalju	28	14	5	9	49	26	47
4	Paide Linnameeskond	27	13	6	8	43	35	45
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	27	14	2	11	36	38	44
6	Parnu JK Vaprus	27	10	4	13	37	52	34
7	Harju JK Laagri	28	11	1	16	40	47	34
8	JK Nomme United	28	9	1	18	46	65	28
9	FC Kuressaare	28	8	4	16	31	49	28
10	JK Trans Narva	28	5	3	20	21	64	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme United	Paide Linnameeskond
FC Flora Tallinn	2-3 L	2-1 W
JK Nomme Kalju	2-1 W	1-1 D
Parnu JK Vaprus	0-1 L	3-1 W
Harju JK Laagri	1-2 L	1-2 L
JK Tammeka Tartu	0-1 L	2-0 W
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-5 L	0-2 L
JK Trans Narva	1-2 L	1-1 D
FC Kuressaare	3-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Paide Linnameeskond (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme United

WWLLLLLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-3	3	1	L
08/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	5	7	W
05/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
29/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
23/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
14/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
09/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-5	1	1	L
31/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
17/07	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	6	3	W
11/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	3-2	6	2	W

Paide Linnameeskond

DWLWDWWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	6	11	L
09/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	1	7	W
06/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
23/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	4-1	8	2	W
16/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
02/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
19/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-5	2-5	7	9	L
04/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
28/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme United vs Paide Linnameeskond?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Paide Linnameeskond win (55%). Probabilities: JK Nomme United 22%, draw 23%, Paide Linnameeskond 55%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme United vs Paide Linnameeskond?

The model expects 3.36 goals (JK Nomme United 1.28 · Paide Linnameeskond 2.08), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme United vs Paide Linnameeskond?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.