Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 20/09, 18:00
Prediction: FC Flora Tallinn vs Parnu JK Vaprus
Team pages: FC Flora Tallinn · Parnu JK Vaprus
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.51Total
FC Flora Tallinn2.36
Parnu JK Vaprus1.16
1X2
FC Flora Tallinn
Draw
Parnu JK Vaprus
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Flora Tallinn
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Parnu JK Vaprus
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Flora Tallinn
5–1–0
Parnu JK Vaprus
(6 last)
- Parnu JK Vaprus1-2FC Flora Tallinn
- Parnu JK Vaprus1-2FC Flora Tallinn
- FC Flora Tallinn2-0Parnu JK Vaprus
- Parnu JK Vaprus2-2FC Flora Tallinn
- Parnu JK Vaprus0-3FC Flora Tallinn
- FC Flora Tallinn3-0Parnu JK Vaprus
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Flora Tallinn 1515 · Parnu JK Vaprus 1458
| FC Flora Tallinn | Draw | Parnu JK Vaprus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 20% | 16% |
| Market | 63% | 21% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Flora Tallinn (rating 1515 vs 1458).
- H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Flora Tallinn | Parnu JK Vaprus | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.8 | 1.5 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 6.3 | 1.7 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Flora Tallinn 5–1–0 Parnu JK Vaprus
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | Parnu JK Vaprus | 1-2 HT 0-2 | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 16/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | Parnu JK Vaprus | 1-2 HT 1-1 | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 12/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | FC Flora Tallinn | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Parnu JK Vaprus |
| 17/01/26 Europe Friendlies | Parnu JK Vaprus | 2-2 HT 1-1 | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 08/11/25 Estonia Meistriliiga | Parnu JK Vaprus | 0-3 HT 0-2 | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 13/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga | FC Flora Tallinn | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Parnu JK Vaprus |
Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 28 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 80 | 20 | 71 |
| 2 | FC Flora Tallinn | 28 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 56 | 37 | 52 |
| 3 | Paide Linnameeskond | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 48 | 36 | 51 |
| 4 | JK Nomme Kalju | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 26 | 47 |
| 5 | JK Tammeka Tartu | 28 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 36 | 44 | 44 |
| 6 | Harju JK Laagri | 29 | 11 | 2 | 16 | 40 | 47 | 35 |
| 7 | Parnu JK Vaprus | 28 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 37 | 54 | 34 |
| 8 | FC Kuressaare | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 31 | 49 | 29 |
| 9 | JK Nomme United | 29 | 9 | 1 | 19 | 47 | 68 | 28 |
| 10 | JK Trans Narva | 28 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 21 | 64 | 18 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Flora Tallinn | Parnu JK Vaprus |
|---|---|---|
| JK Nomme United | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| JK Trans Narva | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| JK Nomme Kalju | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| JK Tammeka Tartu | 3-2 W | 5-1 W |
| Paide Linnameeskond | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| FC Kuressaare | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Harju JK Laagri | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Flora Tallinn (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Flora Tallinn
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 08/09 | JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga |
2-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 02/09 | JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 26/08 | JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 23/08 | Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-3 | 2-3 | 13 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/07 | JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
Parnu JK Vaprus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-3 | 0-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 09/09 | Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 18/07 | JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 11/07 | JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga |
3-1 | 5-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Flora Tallinn vs Parnu JK Vaprus?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Flora Tallinn win (63%). Probabilities: FC Flora Tallinn 63%, draw 20%, Parnu JK Vaprus 16%.
How many goals are expected in FC Flora Tallinn vs Parnu JK Vaprus?
The model expects 3.51 goals (FC Flora Tallinn 2.36 · Parnu JK Vaprus 1.16), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Flora Tallinn vs Parnu JK Vaprus?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.