Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 20/09, 16:00

Prediction: JK Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn

Team pages: JK Trans Narva · FC Levadia Tallinn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

JK Trans Narva0.76

FC Levadia Tallinn2.76

1X2

7% 12% 81%

JK Trans Narva Draw FC Levadia Tallinn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Trans Narva 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLLLDL

FC Levadia Tallinn 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

JK Trans Narva 0–1–5 FC Levadia Tallinn (6 last)

FC Levadia Tallinn4-0JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva1-3FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn7-0JK Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn0-0JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva0-4FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn3-1JK Trans Narva

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Trans Narva 1447 · FC Levadia Tallinn 1637

	JK Trans Narva	Draw	FC Levadia Tallinn
Our model	7%	15%	78%
Market	6%	10%	84%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn (rating 1447 vs 1637).
H2H favours FC Levadia Tallinn: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Trans Narva	FC Levadia Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.1	2.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.3	4.1 / 8.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

115.00

X9.00

21.11

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.95

2 (-2.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 8 moves · last 23:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	15.00 → 9.50▼	Pinn 9.58
X	8.50 → 6.00▼	Pinn 6.61 ★
2	1.13 → 1.25▲	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (8)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:17 +9’	15.00	8.50	1.13
07:44 +7’	15.00	9.00▲	1.11▼
17:28 +3’	13.00▼	8.50▼	1.14▲
21:17 +7’	10.00▼	7.00▼	1.20▲
14:58 +2’	9.00▼	6.50▼	1.22▲
10:21 +18’	9.50▲	7.00▲	1.20▼
20:47 +8’	11.00▲	6.00▼	1.22▲
23:10 +2’	9.50▼	6.00	1.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:11 +193’	10.11	7.15	1.19
09:27 +72’	10.58▲	7.10▼	1.18▼
20:54 +1’	9.42▼	6.39▼	1.23▲
22:49 +24’	9.58▲	6.61▲	1.21▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 6 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Trans Narva 0–1–5 FC Levadia Tallinn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	4-0 HT 1-0	JK Trans Narva
04/07/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	1-3 HT 0-2	FC Levadia Tallinn
26/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	7-0 HT 4-0	JK Trans Narva
31/01/26 Europe Friendlies	FC Levadia Tallinn	0-0 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva
02/11/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	0-4 HT 0-3	FC Levadia Tallinn
29/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	3-1 HT 1-0	JK Trans Narva

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	28	22	5	1	80	20	71
2	FC Flora Tallinn	28	17	1	10	56	37	52
3	Paide Linnameeskond	29	15	6	8	48	36	51
4	JK Nomme Kalju	28	14	5	9	49	26	47
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	28	14	2	12	36	44	44
6	Harju JK Laagri	29	11	2	16	40	47	35
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	28	10	4	14	37	54	34
8	FC Kuressaare	29	8	5	16	31	49	29
9	JK Nomme United	29	9	1	19	47	68	28
10	JK Trans Narva	28	5	3	20	21	64	18

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Trans Narva	FC Levadia Tallinn
JK Nomme Kalju	0-2 L	3-2 W
FC Flora Tallinn	2-2 D	1-2 L
FC Kuressaare	1-3 L	4-0 W
Paide Linnameeskond	1-1 D	2-0 W
JK Nomme United	2-1 W	5-0 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	3-1 W	4-0 W
Harju JK Laagri	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Trans Narva

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
08/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-2	2-2	2	6	D
05/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	2	5	L
30/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
21/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
16/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
31/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
18/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	3	W
10/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-3	1	2	L

FC Levadia Tallinn

LWDWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	4-0	8	4	W
09/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	4-0	3	2	W
06/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
30/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	3-2	10	6	W
21/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
16/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
09/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	5-0	11	1	W
02/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	17	5	D
04/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
28/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-2	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Levadia Tallinn win (81%). Probabilities: JK Trans Narva 7%, draw 12%, FC Levadia Tallinn 81%.

How many goals are expected in JK Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

The model expects 3.52 goals (JK Trans Narva 0.76 · FC Levadia Tallinn 2.76), with a 58% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Trans Narva vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.