Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 20/09, 13:30

Prediction: JK Tammeka Tartu vs JK Nomme Kalju

Team pages: JK Tammeka Tartu · JK Nomme Kalju

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

JK Tammeka Tartu1.2

JK Nomme Kalju1.92

1X2

23% 24% 53%

JK Tammeka Tartu Draw JK Nomme Kalju

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Tammeka Tartu 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLWLW

JK Nomme Kalju 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLLLLW

Head-to-head

JK Tammeka Tartu 1–5 JK Nomme Kalju (6 last)

JK Nomme Kalju5-1JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Nomme Kalju1-2JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu0-1JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju2-1JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu1-3JK Nomme Kalju
JK Tammeka Tartu0-1JK Nomme Kalju

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Tammeka Tartu 1523 · JK Nomme Kalju 1511

	JK Tammeka Tartu	Draw	JK Nomme Kalju
Our model	23%	24%	53%
Market	23%	24%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours JK Nomme Kalju: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Tammeka Tartu	JK Nomme Kalju
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.3	1.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	3.1 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.75

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.88

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:23 +2’	3.90	3.75	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Tammeka Tartu 1–0–5 JK Nomme Kalju

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	5-1 HT 5-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
17/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-2 HT 1-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
08/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	0-1 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju
02/11/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	2-1 HT 0-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
03/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-3 HT 1-3	JK Nomme Kalju
10/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	0-1 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	27	21	5	1	74	20	68
2	FC Flora Tallinn	28	17	1	10	56	37	52
3	JK Nomme Kalju	28	14	5	9	49	26	47
4	Paide Linnameeskond	27	13	6	8	43	35	45
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	27	14	2	11	36	38	44
6	Parnu JK Vaprus	27	10	4	13	37	52	34
7	Harju JK Laagri	28	11	1	16	40	47	34
8	JK Nomme United	28	9	1	18	46	65	28
9	FC Kuressaare	28	8	4	16	31	49	28
10	JK Trans Narva	28	5	3	20	21	64	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Tammeka Tartu	JK Nomme Kalju
FC Kuressaare	3-1 W	0-0 D
Harju JK Laagri	2-0 W	0-1 L
FC Flora Tallinn	2-3 L	1-2 L
JK Trans Narva	2-0 W	2-0 W
JK Nomme United	1-0 W	1-2 L
Parnu JK Vaprus	1-5 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: JK Tammeka Tartu (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Tammeka Tartu

LLWWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-1	5	1	W
09/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
06/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
30/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
26/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	2	9	W
22/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
14/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
02/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-5	1-5	6	2	L
11/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	1-5	8	6	L

JK Nomme Kalju

WDWWWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
08/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	5	7	L
05/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-2	8	1	L
30/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
22/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
16/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
08/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
02/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	5-0	5-1	4	2	W
19/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
03/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-1	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Tammeka Tartu vs JK Nomme Kalju?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Nomme Kalju win (53%). Probabilities: JK Tammeka Tartu 23%, draw 24%, JK Nomme Kalju 53%.

How many goals are expected in JK Tammeka Tartu vs JK Nomme Kalju?

The model expects 3.12 goals (JK Tammeka Tartu 1.2 · JK Nomme Kalju 1.92), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Tammeka Tartu vs JK Nomme Kalju?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.