Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 17/09, 18:00

Prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu

Team pages: FC Levadia Tallinn · JK Tammeka Tartu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.94Total

FC Levadia Tallinn2.97

JK Tammeka Tartu0.97

1X2

78% 14% 8%

FC Levadia Tallinn Draw JK Tammeka Tartu

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Levadia Tallinn 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWWWWW

JK Tammeka Tartu 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLWLW

Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn 5–1–0 JK Tammeka Tartu (6 last)

JK Tammeka Tartu1-2FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn4-2JK Tammeka Tartu
FC Levadia Tallinn3-0JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu2-2FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn4-0JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu2-3FC Levadia Tallinn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Levadia Tallinn 1639 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1519

	FC Levadia Tallinn	Draw	JK Tammeka Tartu
Our model	77%	14%	9%
Market	79%	13%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn (rating 1639 vs 1519).
H2H favours FC Levadia Tallinn: 5-1-0.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Levadia Tallinn	JK Tammeka Tartu
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 0.7	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	0.9 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 8.4	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.17

X7.00

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.88

2 (+2.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:07 +3’	1.17	7.00	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Levadia Tallinn 5–1–0 JK Tammeka Tartu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Levadia Tallinn
08/02/26 Europe Friendlies	FC Levadia Tallinn	4-2 HT 2-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
05/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	3-0 HT 2-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
13/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	2-2 HT 1-1	FC Levadia Tallinn
26/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	4-0 HT 2-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
08/03/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	2-3 HT 1-2	FC Levadia Tallinn

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	27	21	5	1	74	20	68
2	FC Flora Tallinn	28	17	1	10	56	37	52
3	JK Nomme Kalju	28	14	5	9	49	26	47
4	Paide Linnameeskond	27	13	6	8	43	35	45
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	27	14	2	11	36	38	44
6	Parnu JK Vaprus	27	10	4	13	37	52	34
7	Harju JK Laagri	28	11	1	16	40	47	34
8	JK Nomme United	28	9	1	18	46	65	28
9	FC Kuressaare	28	8	4	16	31	49	28
10	JK Trans Narva	28	5	3	20	21	64	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Levadia Tallinn	JK Tammeka Tartu
Parnu JK Vaprus	4-0 W	1-5 L
FC Kuressaare	4-0 W	3-1 W
Paide Linnameeskond	2-0 W	0-2 L
JK Nomme Kalju	3-2 W	1-5 L
JK Trans Narva	4-0 W	2-0 W
Harju JK Laagri	2-1 W	2-0 W
JK Nomme United	5-0 W	1-0 W
FC Flora Tallinn	1-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Levadia Tallinn

LWDWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	4-0	8	4	W
09/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	4-0	3	2	W
06/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
30/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	3-2	10	6	W
21/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
16/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
09/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	5-0	11	1	W
02/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	17	5	D
04/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
28/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-2	8	5	L

JK Tammeka Tartu

LLWWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-1	5	1	W
09/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
06/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
30/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
26/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	2	9	W
22/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
14/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
02/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-5	1-5	6	2	L
11/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	1-5	8	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Levadia Tallinn win (78%). Probabilities: FC Levadia Tallinn 78%, draw 14%, JK Tammeka Tartu 8%.

How many goals are expected in FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model expects 3.94 goals (FC Levadia Tallinn 2.97 · JK Tammeka Tartu 0.97), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.