Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 18/09, 18:00

Prediction: Harju JK Laagri vs FC Kuressaare

Team pages: Harju JK Laagri · FC Kuressaare

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

Harju JK Laagri2.07

FC Kuressaare1.5

1X2

49% 24% 27%

Harju JK Laagri Draw FC Kuressaare

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Harju JK Laagri 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWWLLW

FC Kuressaare 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLDWLL

Head-to-head

Harju JK Laagri 3–1–2 FC Kuressaare (6 last)

FC Kuressaare3-2Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri2-3FC Kuressaare
Harju JK Laagri2-1FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare1-3Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri1-1FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare1-2Harju JK Laagri

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Harju JK Laagri 1521 · FC Kuressaare 1511

	Harju JK Laagri	Draw	FC Kuressaare
Our model	50%	23%	27%
Market	49%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Harju JK Laagri: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Harju JK Laagri	FC Kuressaare
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.70

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
14:47 +24’	1.83	3.70	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Harju JK Laagri 3–1–2 FC Kuressaare

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	3-2 HT 1-0	Harju JK Laagri
13/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	2-3 HT 0-0	FC Kuressaare
17/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
09/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	1-3 HT 1-3	Harju JK Laagri
29/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Kuressaare
16/03/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	1-2 HT 1-1	Harju JK Laagri

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	27	21	5	1	74	20	68
2	FC Flora Tallinn	28	17	1	10	56	37	52
3	JK Nomme Kalju	28	14	5	9	49	26	47
4	Paide Linnameeskond	27	13	6	8	43	35	45
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	27	14	2	11	36	38	44
6	Parnu JK Vaprus	27	10	4	13	37	52	34
7	Harju JK Laagri	28	11	1	16	40	47	34
8	JK Nomme United	28	9	1	18	46	65	28
9	FC Kuressaare	28	8	4	16	31	49	28
10	JK Trans Narva	28	5	3	20	21	64	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Harju JK Laagri	FC Kuressaare
Paide Linnameeskond	2-1 W	0-1 L
Parnu JK Vaprus	2-3 L	2-2 D
JK Tammeka Tartu	0-2 L	1-3 L
JK Nomme United	2-1 W	2-3 L
JK Nomme Kalju	1-0 W	0-0 D
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-2 L	0-4 L
FC Flora Tallinn	0-1 L	3-2 W
JK Trans Narva	3-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Harju JK Laagri (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Harju JK Laagri

WWLLLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	3	11	W
09/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
06/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
29/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
16/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
07/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-3	6	6	L
02/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
19/07	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	5-1	5-2	5	9	W
10/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-0	5	2	W

FC Kuressaare

LDLWWLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-3	6	1	L
09/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
05/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
29/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
16/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-2	3	7	W
07/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-2	7	6	W
02/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
19/07	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
11/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-3	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Harju JK Laagri vs FC Kuressaare?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Harju JK Laagri win (49%). Probabilities: Harju JK Laagri 49%, draw 24%, FC Kuressaare 27%.

How many goals are expected in Harju JK Laagri vs FC Kuressaare?

The model expects 3.57 goals (Harju JK Laagri 2.07 · FC Kuressaare 1.5), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Harju JK Laagri vs FC Kuressaare?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.