Football · Italy Serie C Cup · 15/08, 21:00
Prediction: Cittadella vs Atalanta U23
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
Cittadella1.36
Atalanta U231.07
1X2
Cittadella
Draw
Atalanta U23
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Cittadella
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Atalanta U23
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cittadella 1510 · Atalanta U23 1484
| Cittadella | Draw | Atalanta U23 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Market | 42% | 30% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cittadella | Atalanta U23 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.5 | 1.7 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0.2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cittadella
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Luparense FC Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 01/08 | Padova Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 29/07 | Cremonese Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 25/07 | Torino Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 13/05 | Ravenna Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 10/05 | Ravenna Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 06/05 | Lumezzane Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Giana Erminio Italy Serie C Group A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Novara Italy Serie C Group A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
Atalanta U23
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Lecco Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Atalanta Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Casertana Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Catania Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 19/04 | Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 12/04 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 08/04 | Cavese Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 04/04 | Siracusa Italy Serie C Group C |
1-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 21/03 | Casertana Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 14/03 | Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cittadella vs Atalanta U23?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cittadella win (42%). Probabilities: Cittadella 42%, draw 30%, Atalanta U23 28%.
How many goals are expected in Cittadella vs Atalanta U23?
The model expects 2.43 goals (Cittadella 1.36 · Atalanta U23 1.07), with a 57% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Atalanta U23?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.