Football · Italy Serie C Cup · 15/08, 21:00
Prediction: Perugia vs Vis Pesaro
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
Perugia1.57
Vis Pesaro1.27
1X2
Perugia
Draw
Vis Pesaro
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Perugia
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Vis Pesaro
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Perugia
2–2–2
Vis Pesaro
(6 last)
- Vis Pesaro0-1Perugia
- Perugia2-1Vis Pesaro
- Perugia0-1Vis Pesaro
- Vis Pesaro0-0Perugia
- Vis Pesaro1-0Perugia
- Perugia2-2Vis Pesaro
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Perugia 1527 · Vis Pesaro 1429
| Perugia | Draw | Vis Pesaro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Market | 42% | 30% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Perugia (rating 1527 vs 1429).
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Perugia | Vis Pesaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/33/33% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.2 | 1.8 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Perugia 2–2–2 Vis Pesaro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Italy Serie C Group B | Vis Pesaro | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Perugia |
| 24/11/25 Italy Serie C Group B | Perugia | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Vis Pesaro |
| 07/02/25 Italy Serie C Group B | Perugia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Vis Pesaro |
| 30/09/24 Italy Serie C Group B | Vis Pesaro | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Perugia |
| 14/04/24 Italy Serie C Group B | Vis Pesaro | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Perugia |
| 10/12/23 Italy Serie C Group B | Perugia | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Vis Pesaro |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Perugia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Grosseto Europe Friendlies |
– | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 26/04 | Forli Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 18/04 | Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 12/04 | Ternana Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 04/04 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group B |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 29/03 | Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 20/03 | Torres Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 15/03 | Arezzo Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 09/03 | Pontedera Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 04/03 | Livorno Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
Vis Pesaro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Cesena Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 31/07 | Benevento Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 23/07 | Venezia Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 0-8 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Play-Offs |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 26/04 | Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 12/04 | AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 04/04 | Ascoli Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 29/03 | Perugia Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 21/03 | FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Perugia vs Vis Pesaro?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Perugia win (43%). Probabilities: Perugia 43%, draw 29%, Vis Pesaro 29%.
How many goals are expected in Perugia vs Vis Pesaro?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Perugia 1.57 · Vis Pesaro 1.27), with a 62% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Vis Pesaro?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.